The possibility of a showdown between the United States and Russia is looming as a Russian tanker laden with oil steams toward Cuba and a U.S. blockade.
The Anatoly Kolodkin has 730,000 barrels of oil aboard, according to Politico, and is heading for the Cuban port of Matanzas. It could arrive in two to three days, Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward AI, said.
The Kolodkin was escorted through the English Channel by the Russian navy, but since then the tanker has been on its own.
Politico reported that former Trump administration officials expect the tanker to be stopped, but that current administration officials are keeping quiet about what the U.S. will do.
Russia has not said for certain that it plans to test the blockade and create the biggest showdown since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, preferring to drop hints wrapped in bland statements of support for Cuba, which has been under an oil blockade ever since American forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Cuba relied on Venezuelan oil, which has been cut off since January.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the government is “in constant contact with the Cuban leadership, with our Cuban friends,” and “indeed, discussing with them possible options for assisting Cuba,” according to the Latin Times.
The Kolodkin has been sanctioned by the U.S., the United Kingdom, and the European Union, according to The Washington Post.
Although the Trump administration last week bent its rules on buying Russian oil due to the war in Iran, it emphasized that Cuba is not allowed to be a customer, setting up a collision course if the tanker actually tries to dock in Cuba.
“Russia has been seriously hurt by its lack of willingness to defend Maduro at all, and playing not a visible role in the Iran conflict,” Douglas Farah, president of the national security consulting firm IBI Consultants, said.
But Russia is likely to back off if defiance leads to a confrontation.
Russia is “probing the strength of American will,” he said.
“I seriously doubt, even with the U.S. being very distracted in Iran, that Russia would test the military resolve of the United States, especially given Trump’s, you know, ongoing behavior.”
Some Russian commentators want Russia to defy the U.S.
“The island of freedom and socialism is being strangled by the U.S. before the eyes of the entire world,” Russian political analyst Sergei Markov said. “Everyone pinned their ears back like rabbits — and only Russia, a brave and proud country, sent tankers to Cuba.”
Farah said showing support for Cuba by running the blockade would be “about the symbolism of Cuba as their longtime allies since the late 1950s or the 1960s, and the fact that symbolizing is very strong across Latin America,” he said.
Reaching Cuba with needed oil “would be to say, ‘We can still help our allies and we’re willing to do so with some risk and don’t everybody turn your back on us.’”
But Lawrence Gumbiner, who led the U.S. Embassy in Cuba during President Donald Trump’s first term, said Russia is not “serious about coming to Cuba’s rescue.”
“It’s not in their interest to pick a fight with Trump over something that is so, so clearly within the U.S. orbit as Trump has defined it,” Gumbiner said.
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