On Friday evening, President Donald Trump issued Iran’s mullahs a 48-hour deadline: Open the Strait of Hormuz or say goodbye to your power plants.
And then, this morning — just 12 hours before the deadline ended — the president abruptly pulled the plug:
But did you notice the timing?
Trump delivered the ultimatum on Friday evening, after the U.S. markets had closed for the week. And he canceled his ultimatum on Monday morning, just before the U.S. markets reopened.
And the new five-day deadline? Why, it conveniently begins after the U.S. markets close on Friday!
None of this was coincidental.
Meanwhile, Iran quickly claimed victory:
🚨 #BREAKING
Trump, fearing Iran’s response, backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum:
‘I told the Department of Defense not to carry out any attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure for the time being’ https://t.co/XIGrdtIPKE— IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) (@iribnews_irib) March 23, 2026
As NDTV World reported, “After Trump’s No-Strike Decision, Iran Media Bursts Out Laughing at Him”:
Trump’s announcement about a five-day window in which the US would hold off on hitting Iranian power plants and related infrastructure was met in Tehran’s media ecosystem with a mix of derision and triumph.
Iran media Press TV reported there was no contact for talks with the US, whether direct or indirect.
[…]
Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, in a post on X said, “Trump and America have backed down again. The field is still charging forward. Another defeat for the devil.”
President Trump prides himself on being an elite dealmaker, but deals are only possible when each side covets something different. If all parties want the exact same thing, a compromise is impossible.
At this juncture in the war, the Iranians and the U.S.-Israelis have dramatically different objectives.
Iran can’t go toe-to-toe with its foes militarily. It’s outgunned, outmatched, outclassed, outmanned, and overwhelmed. If the war is decided on the battlefield, Iran will lose — and embarrassingly, too.
But there’s still one place where it can win: the arena of public opinion.
Iran needs PR to decide this war. If the mullahs don’t look strong, tough, and unbeatable, the Iranian people will rise up and overthrow them. Which is why, in their minds, losing the war-war — but winning the PR war — is a perfectly acceptable outcome.
After all, the number-one goal of a dictatorship is to retain its power.
President Trump is less concerned with PR than he is with reality. War, by its nature, isn’t won with press releases — but with bullets. Which makes the president’s calculations clear: He needs time to obliterate the last vestiges of the mullahs’ might, annihilate its stormtroopers, crush the regime, and maximize the probability of a successful Iranian uprising.
Because if we win the war-war, the PR war will take care of itself. From Trump’s perspective, victory is the only litmus test that matters.
But Trump needs a free hand to continue softening the Iranian regime. Yes, his primary battlefield is still the battlefield — but not even the president is immune to public pressure.
Domestically, his MAGA base hasn’t left his side:
There’s no break in MAGA. Trump’s approval with MAGA GOP is literally 100%.
90% of MAGA GOP approve of US military action in Iran.
Those who disapprove of Trump are not MAGA at this point.
Importantly: MAGA makes up the same share of voters as it did when Trump won in 2024. pic.twitter.com/LqMRHm8t1B
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 18, 2026
Yet among independents and Democrats, the war is dreadfully unpopular — with its biggest potential pain points coming from surging oil prices and/or a stock market collapse:
Donald Trump’s war on Iran is proving unpopular with American voters, who are facing surging oil prices. This could become a big problem for the Republicans in the upcoming midterms.
Read about the battle to flip Texas: https://t.co/HHfmZoIhFJ pic.twitter.com/P3TeTztm52
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) March 23, 2026
Had Trump stuck to his 48-hour deadline — which would’ve elapsed AFTER the close of U.S. markets on Monday evening — panicked investors would’ve braced for the worst when trading began at 9:30 a.m., triggering a self-fulfilling prophecy of economic Armageddon. They would’ve anticipated oil shortages, starving civilians, mass migrations, and global chaos, because that’s what investors do: They overreact to good news — and they overreact to bad news.
In their minds, the most extreme possibility is always the most likely. (It’s simply their psychology.)
This means that Monday, March 23, would’ve been an absolute financial bloodbath — an even blacker Black Monday.
And then, for the rest of the week, the news cycle would be all about the collapsing stock market, our retirement funds in freefall, sticker-shock at the gas station, and how Donald Trump has ruined the economy. Democrats would claim that “Trump’s war” was responsible for every single financial hardship that voters face.
So Trump pivoted. He gave Iran what it values most of all: a short-term PR victory.
And in return, Trump got what he values most of all: a stable stock market, investors not leaping out of windows, and a free hand to continue pounding the crap out of Iran.
No, the Iranians won’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz on their own — not this week, not next week, and not the week after. Don’t expect a diplomatic solution to a military problem because it ain’t gonna happen. The Iranians STILL gain more by closing the Strait than by opening it.
That’s the mullahs’ hope: If they spike the cost to Trump and his allies, eventually he’ll decide that the juice isn’t worth the squeeze, and he’ll walk away with his tail between his legs.
Which is why Trump is mitigating the financial cost by ratcheting up tensions when the markets are closed — and lowering the temperature when they reopen.
Prediction: This pattern will continue for the duration of the war. Israel and America will grind the mullahs into sawdust throughout the week, systematically dismantling Iran’s capacity to control its citizens. By Thursday or Friday, when it’s clear we’re closer to the end of the beginning than the beginning of the end, Trump will terrorize the mullahs with deadlier threats, spiking tensions, and keeping them on tilt.
Putting your enemies on tilt gives you a tactical advantage, because players on tilt make stupid mistakes like alienating all their neighbors and allies by firing missiles, drones, and artillery at ‘em.
Attacking its neighbors was, so far, Iran’s biggest wartime mistake. It’s never been this isolated — or this vulnerable.
And then, over the weekend, Trump will dangle an olive branch that’s out-of-reach for the mullahs because he’ll cite “progress” on an agreement that the mullahs cannot agree to — but he’s clearly not doing it for the mullahs’ sake.
He’s doing it to mollify investors.
Watch the stock market today: As of this writing, it’s still early in trading, but so far, so good. Any headline about the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all “soaring” is a good headline.
Of course, the Democrats and/or the mainstream media won’t see it that way. It’s not even Tuesday, and they’re already thinking about TACOs:
Newsweek: What Donald Trump Gains From His Temporary TACO
The Bulwark: Better to TACO Than Not to TACO
The Daily Beast: Iran Calls BS on TACO Trump’s Peace Talk Claim
IntelliNews: Has Trump TACO’d on the Iran War?
Investing Live: Big Turn in Markets as Trump Delivers Another TACO Moment
Daily Kos: Did Trump TACO?
But Trump hasn’t “chickened out.” He’s still bombing the hell out of Iran as we speak, eliminating its chain of command and smashing its power structures, and he’ll continue until U.S. and Israeli intelligence conclude that the Iranian people are ready to retake their country.
According to Iran International, we’re just a few weeks away from that moment.
Because President Trump isn’t playing a game of chicken. He’s playing 4D chess.
And if you know what to look for, his moves make all the sense in the world.
One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First: It began with Mayor Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battlelines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.
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