No More Mr. Nice Guy? One More Time Mr. Nice Guy?
After the strike by Israel on the South Pars natural-gas facility yesterday, Iran decided to retaliate by targeting energy production facilities throughout the Gulf. They chose as their first target, ironically, their partners in the South Pars facilities – Qatar. Iran fired ballistic missiles at their liquified natural gas facility at Ras Laffan, which prompted the Qataris to expel the entire Iranian diplomatic corps from the emirate:
“The Ministry clarified that this decision comes in the wake of repeated Iranian targeting and treacherous aggression that targeted the State of Qatar, violated its sovereignty and security, in flagrant violation of the principles of international law, UN Security Council Resolution No. (2817), and the rules of good neighborliness,” the Qatari Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
“The Ministry emphasized that the continuation of the Iranian side in this hostile approach will be met with the State of Qatar taking additional measures to ensure the protection of its sovereignty, security, and national interests,” the ministry said.
The strikes did significant damage, Qatar later announced. Iran also hit refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with a second attempt on Saudi energy production successfully intercepted. The IRGC threatened to escalate further unless attacks on Iran’s energy production stopped:
In a statement posted by the semiofficial ISNA news agency, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said that “if the aggression is repeated, the next attacks on your energy infrastructure and that of your allies will not stop until it is completely destroyed.” It warned that the response would be “far more severe” than the attacks overnight.
The Saudis had something to say about that, but before we get to that, Donald Trump offered a deal … of sorts. In a Truth Social post last night, Trump claimed that the US did not participate in the South Pars strike, and that Israel had chosen the target “out of anger.” Trump wants a moratorium on all attacks on energy production and distribution by both Iran and the US and Israel. If Iran continues to attack energy facilities, however, Trump threatened to finish the job at South Pars, and he means finish:
Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility. NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar – In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar’s LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Trump isn’t the only player issuing warnings about escalations. The Saudis had reached a kind of rapprochement with the Iranian regime in 2023 with assurances of non-aggression, at least. This came as the Biden Regency attempted to find accommodation with Iran, efforts that got derailed by Hamas’ October 7 massacres later in the year. Now, the Saudi royal family is telling Arab News that Iran has betrayed that agreement and that Saudi Arabia could enter the war on the US-Israel side within days if these escalations continue:
The Gulf countries are now seeking unity in talks about what to do next. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan spoke out forcefully on Thursday. He said that Riyadh’s restraint could end. Saudi Arabia’s patience is “not unlimited,” Arab News reported.
Farhan said, “The Kingdom and its partners possess significant capabilities, and the patience we have shown is not unlimited. It could be a day, two days, or a week — I will not say.”
Prince Faisal said Saudi Arabia “reserves the right to take military action if deemed necessary.” Saudi Arabia had reconciled with Iran in 2023 after years of tensions. Now the Kingdom is outraged. This is “almost nothing” left to salvage the relationship, Farhan said.
In Dubai, the other neighboring states are clearing their throats about the right to self-defense, both individual and collective:
Gulf News in Dubai, for instance, says “Arab and Islamic foreign ministers issued a unified condemnation of Iran’s missile and drone attacks across the Gulf on Thursday, warning that the strikes on civilian infrastructure “cannot be justified under any circumstances” and urging Tehran to immediately halt its escalation.”
It adds, “meeting in Riyadh amid intensifying regional tensions, ministers from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Turkey, Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Lebanon said continued violations of sovereignty would carry consequences and reaffirmed the right of states to defend themselves under Article 51 of the UN Charter.”
What could these states add to a war already dominated by the US and Israel? For one thing, they may have different rules of engagement and other ideas about target selection. The US and Israel have been careful to limit collateral damage and to protect the civil infrastructure of Iran, with the exception of the strike on South Pars. The Saudis may not be as inclined to precision, especially when it comes to Iran’s energy production. The best way to keep the mullahs in their cage when the war ends – assuming the regime survives in any meaningful form – is to utterly impoverish them. Trump has not wanted to do that, in hopes that the Iranian people will rise up and take their country back. A few more shots from Iran at the Saudis’ oil and gas facilities might make Riyadh care much less about those considerations.
Iran might push Trump into that position, too. He wants to win the war and keep Iran relatively intact for a liberated populace, but those two goals may be in irreconcilable conflict. Before taking out South Pars, though, Trump might make a move on Kharg Island and seize their export facilities, which is a more direct route to impoverishing the IRGC and strangling their war efforts.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
Help us report the truth about the Trump administration’s decisive actions to keep Americans safe and bring peace to the world. Join Hot Air VIP and use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your membership!
