True story: I opened so many tabs with “Bad news for the Islamic Republic surviving” items on Sunday that Monday morning raised the question, “How the heck do I organize this much material into a single column?”
But I’m a highly trained [cough, cough] news professional, so here we go.
The first 10 days or so of Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion saw U.S./Israeli forces focusing their attacks on the top of the Islamic Republic’s regime “pyramid,” for lack of a better word. Initial strikes took out dozens of senior civilian and military leaders — the apex of the pyramid — paralyzing or at least confusing the regime’s ability to respond.
While the Israeli Air Force (IAF) kept whacking leadership moles as they popped up, both IAF and U.S. air power went after military targets like air defenses, missile launchers, drone facilities, and the like. Iran’s offensive abilities quickly degraded.
Iran’s capabilities to attack are nearly eliminated. The number of drone and missile attacks are shrinking fast.
Either they are running out or their crews are being eliminated. pic.twitter.com/1KmLNfqMoz
— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) March 15, 2026
The base of the pyramid is the Basij militia who perform so much of the regime’s scut-work. Having degraded Iran’s military and civilian leadership, air defense, and thousands of other military targets, now U.S./Israel forces are free to go after the Basij.
Starting late last week — and accelerating through the weekend — that’s exactly what they’re doing.
The IAF attacks include one-way drones, and as we learned watching the Russo-Ukraine War, that means giving Basij militiamen very few places to hide.
🔴 BREAKING:
Reports that regime forces who hid their checkpoints under bridges and inside tunnels were killed there also. pic.twitter.com/YZI59le3eG
— 𝐍𝐢𝐨𝐡 𝐁𝐞𝐫𝐠 🇮🇷 ✡︎ (@NiohBerg) March 16, 2026
The best part is, IAF gets realtime targeting data from the very people the Basij are supposed to be terrorizing. “Rather than going out on the streets to protest against the IRGC are calling in checkpoints to Israel — and after confirming the information the checkpoints are NO MORE,” is how Belann F summed up the situation.
It’s impressive to watch in action, even though we’ve had the ability to watch videos like this one since the 1991 Gulf War.
WILD: The predicted “future” came within 24 hours. This is Israeli Air Force footage of drones and jets blowing up Basij checkpoints all around Tehran today, based on tips called in by Iranian citizens. A revolution with air support against a regime with no air defence. https://t.co/SZNn3mseMU pic.twitter.com/JRvRNUWZQP
— Saul Sadka (@Saul_Sadka) March 13, 2026
As another X wit put it, “If I’m a Basij checkpoint guard I’m seriously thinking of calling in sick today.”
When the guards stop showing up for work is when the prisoners break free.
Finally, here’s a message purportedly from an Iranian that rings true to everything we learned from the last wave of protests — and how they were murderously put down.
Message from Iran: “For the God’s sake do not stop. Hit the regime in whatever way you can. They will butcher us if the regime survives.”
Iranians are not scared of war.
They are only scared of the regime surviving.
— Khosro K Isfahani (@KhosroIsfahani) March 15, 2026
Remember this headline from January: Over 36,500 killed in Iran’s deadliest massacre, documents reveal.
That figure is widely considered lowball.
“This is no time to go wobbly,” the wise woman once said of a conflict next door.
Recommended: I Have Seen the Future of Anti-Drone Warfare, and It’s Dirt-Cheap (Really!)
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