Yesterday and even today, Mojtaba Khamenei seemed likely to succeed his father as the next Supreme Leader. This morning, CNN highlighted Mojtaba’s odds in the succession battle, noting his strong links with the other mullahs, the IRGC, and the Basij, which took a major role in suppressing the protests last month and murdered thousand of Iranians:
Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba, is a significant figure with strong links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite wing of Iran’s military, as well as the Basij, a volunteer paramilitary force. But given that the regime swept to power to replace the Iranian monarchy, the Shiite clerical establishment may want to avoid father-to-son succession.
The good news for the regime remnants is that they no longer need to worry about it. Western media have yet to report on this, but apparently Mojtaba will not be available for a leadership role in Iran for, well … ever.
Iranian media: Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has long been discussed as one of the potential successors, has been eliminated. pic.twitter.com/6Fy8mkHe47
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 1, 2026
This may be another case of ‘dating’ a report for a while before ‘marrying’ it. However, the younger Khamenei’s absence from any responses by the regime has been notable, considering his placement within it. This account usually does a credible job of reporting on Iranian and Arabic media, but I’ll keep an eye on this as it develops.
Another major development tends to suggest that Mojtaba is not in the picture, too. Donald Trump told The Atlantic today that the remnants of the regime’s senior leadership want to reopen negotiations, even while the Iranians continue to intensify their ballistic-missile volleys at practically anyone in the area:
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Iran’s new leadership wants to open talks with Washington, one day after US-Israeli strikes that Iranian state media and Israeli officials said killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In a phone call interview, Trump told The Atlantic that he agreed to speak with Iranian representatives, but declined to specify whether a conversation would take place on Sunday or Monday.
He added that some Iranian officials involved in recent contacts were “no longer alive,” following what he described as a major strike.
Would any leadership that included Mojtaba – or even influenced by Khamenei fils – try a truce the day the ayatollah got buried? That seems highly unlikely. In fact, one still has to wonder if anyone connected to the regime is even capable of bargaining in good faith. The Iranians had plenty of opportunities to do so, starting in June of last year, and refused even to discuss their ballistic missile systems or terror proxies, let alone make any significant concession on their nuclear-weapons development.
Could the last 36 hours have changed their mind? Possibly, but perhaps the specter of what awaits them over the next week matters more. The Israelis believe that they have demolished enough regime infrastructure to send out the Bat-signal into the night skies of Tehran:
Israel believes that the joint campaign with the US against Iran is progressing more quickly than anticipated, and that the regime will struggle to withstand the full implementation of the campaign plan, Channel 12 reports, citing a senior Israeli official.
It will be “game over” for the regime, according to the report, meaning that it will not be able to stand up to protesters if they take to the streets once again.
Israel is now focused on massive strikes to take out the government’s means of repressing citizens in Tehran, including the Revolutionary Guards, according to the report.
Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu advised Iranians to remain patient and await the signal to start their own liberation. If the US and Israel have dismantled enough of the structures of oppression in Tehran, that moment may soon be at hand, and that might have the regime remnants desperate enough to sue for peace on Trump’s terms.
CENTCOM also confirms that the focus of strikes has been on the internal security apparatuses as well as the external military capacity. They also note one of the best reasons for Operation Epic Fury:
The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) killed more than 1,000 Americans over the past 47 years. Yesterday, a large-scale U.S. strike cut off the head of the snake. America has the most powerful military on earth, and the IRGC no longer has a headquarters. pic.twitter.com/WdpN7JBECr
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 1, 2026
Will Trump talk with the regime remnants? There’s not much risk in conversations, especially when Trump has now repeatedly demonstrated that he won’t let talks get in the way of necessary action. Don’t expect much to come out of these talks, though, since Trump will now insist on a transition that ends the IRGC/mullah dictatorship in favor of a popular republic. The regime remnants will be the first up against the wall in a new Iran, and they know it. About the only deal that could end this would be an agreement for safe passage to Russia or China in exchange for an end to hostilities.
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