One thing’s for sure: the pauses are getting shorter. And so, apparently, is Donald Trump’s patience.
Two weeks ago, Trump finally ended a Ceasefire in Name Only to restart strategic strikes on the IRGC in Iran. The regime had constantly interfered with traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and launched other attacks as well during the three-month pause, even after signing the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Even after restarting strategic attacks, Trump kept diplomatic channels open, which led to another pause this week. After a quasi-surprise ballistic missile attack on American bases in Jordan, however, Trump declared that it was now “our turn.”
CENTCOM announced this morning that it had struck “dozens” of IRGC targets in an asymmetrical response:
U.S. Central Command said it carried out a “heavy wave of strikes against Iran” in response to an attempted attack on American troops stationed in the Middle East.
The military action, which was completed at 10 p.m. ET Thursday, came after Iran had launched a surprise missile attack on U.S. forces in Jordan.
“CENTCOM assets struck dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran, including military command centers, missile and drone facilities, coastal surveillance and defense sites, and maritime capabilities,” CENTCOM said. “The strikes aimed to further diminish threats posed by Iran and its proxies to American forces, commercial shipping, and neighboring Gulf countries.”
That’s quite a list of military targets, more robust than one might expect after five months of off-and-on bombing. What’s not on the list? The dual-use targets that Trump pledged to hit last week if Iran kept attacking commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump had made that promise specific:
President Trump threatened to destroy Iranian infrastructure if Iran attacks vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, in the latest sign he is planning to escalate the conflict.
Trump wrote on Truth Social Wednesday that the U.S. will “bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT,” including infrastructure in or near Tehran, every time Iran shoots at a ship in the strait.
The president’s comments are the latest indication that the two countries might return to full-scale war. On Tuesday, he said U.S. military forces would likely attack Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain, the underground site where Israeli intelligence believes Iran has buried advanced nuclear-enrichment centrifuges, “pretty soon.”
It’s possible that CENTCOM included some bridge and power targets in last night’s strikes and just failed to distinguish them. More likely, though, CENTCOM and the Pentagon want to continue attacking and degrading tactical targets rather than strategic targets that prop up the regime. There are likely good reasons for this; CENTCOM wants to reduce the IRGC’s offensive capabilities even further, especially those involved in targeting shipping in the Strait. If Trump continues the strikes, he will have ample opportunity to turn this round of kinetic action into Bridge and Power Day or even Infrastructure Week.
However, that still leaves the IRGC in place to control outcomes. One lesson we should have learned by now is that Ahmad Vahidi & Co can sustain enormous amounts of military damage. Economic damage undermines their authority to rule, however, which is why the blockade forced Vahidi to the table at all. If the US wants a solution to the dangers the IRGC poses in the region, then Trump will have to bite the bullet and go all-in on a strategic campaign to collapse its grip on Iran. That means focusing less on every launcher, and applying pressure to dual-use infrastructure that directly impacts their ability to maintain power and control over a captive populace.
One has to wonder whether Benjamin Netanyahu made that argument to Trump directly. The Israeli PM met with Trump after the funeral for Lindsey Graham and laid out three broad options for dealing with Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Washington on Wednesday as the Trump administration weighed its next move.
In a White House meeting on Tuesday, Trump and Netanyahu did what a senior Israeli official called a clinical review of three strategies toward Iran: a diplomatic agreement, intensifying economic pressure and ramping up the blockade, or renewing military action. U.S. and Israeli officials weighed costs and timelines for each.
Netanyahu didn’t express a preference for any of the options and told Trump it was his decision, the Israeli official said. He told Trump that diplomacy could be pursued alongside greater economic pressure such as restricting Iran’s overland trade routes while negotiations continue.
Netanyahu must be treading carefully with Trump. He certainly knows that Trump has vented his spleen about Israel during the negotiations with Iran, but Trump has to recognize at this point that Netanyahu understood the situation better all along. The problem with this presentation – which cannot have been lost on either man – is that Trump has already tried the first two options, and they didn’t work. Trump spent three months attempting to get Iran to stick to diplomatic agreements, and then reapplied the blockade when Iran kept attacking shipping. Those options won’t work with the IRGC.
Netanyahu didn’t express a preference because the options speak for themselves.
Not that Netanyahu spent his time as a passive observer. Axios reports that Netanyahu made sure to have some pointed words with J.D. Vance while the opportunity presented itself:
Inside the room: A senior Israeli official said Netanyahu spoke to Vance about his recent criticism of the Israeli government and Israel’s standing among Republicans.
- “It was a frank and candid conversation,” the Israeli official said.
- A U.S. official confirmed that characterization: “The conversation was direct.”
- The vice president’s office declined to comment.
“Direct” is diplomatic jargon for “someone got told off in no uncertain terms.” What was said? I’d bet it had something to do with Tucker Carlson and preventing the spread of cerebro-rectalitis. Let’s hope Vance takes a lesson from it, and from his insistence that the US can deal with the IRGC.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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