Lose a primary, gain a movement?
On May 18, Rep. Thomas Massie pooh-poohed his opponent’s chances: “You don’t send the Secretary of War to Kentucky during a war if you think your candidate is up 10 points. That’s what you do when you realize your whole campaign is imploding.”
And then, of course, Massie lost by 10 points. (Whoops.)
So what’s next for the libertarian-leaning Kentucky curmudgeon? After all, he told Mother Jones that — should he be defeated — he’d happily retire from politics and enjoy the good life as a farmer:
As an engineer, Massie understands how to interpret the odds better than most, and when I spoke with him earlier this year, he was realistic about his prospects in the primary — and sanguine about it. “I’d be perfectly happy going back to my farm,” he told me. “If I were to lose, my blood pressure would go down, and my quality of life would go up, so I’m okay with that fate. I think so many of my colleagues just so desperately want the job that they couldn’t imagine doing a single thing that would endanger having the job.”
I don’t believe him. Neither should you.
Thomas Massie embodies George Carlin’s observation: “People who say they don’t care what people think are usually desperate to have people think they don’t care what people think.” If Massie were REALLY that indifferent, he wouldn’t have broken his promise to only serve three terms in Congress — or waged a scorched-Earth war with his own party to return to D.C. for term number eight.
After all, Massie’s performative brand of anti-conformity doesn’t work without an audience — and after 14 years in Congress, his national platform has never been greater. If you think he’ll squander this opportunity to slop pigs in Kentucky, you’re flippin’ nuts.
He’s leaving Congress, but I promise you, he’s not going away.
I predicted Massie’s defeat about a week ago, and then doubled down on Election Day. Between the predictive markets, outside polling, the mood of MAGA, and both campaigns’ PR tactics, the outcome was obvious: President Trump wouldn’t have invested this much political capital if internal polling indicated a Massie victory. The writing was on the wall; it was a fait accompli.
Unfortunately, what comes next is obvious and predictable, too.
Thomas Massie didn’t go to Washington to pass bills (clearly). He’s a legislator who doesn’t give a damn about legislation. That’s not what motivates him.
Instead, he sees himself as a “goodwill ambassador” for his libertarian-aligned political ideology. Yes, he valued being a U.S. congressman — but only because it gave him a national platform to promote his worldview. Passing bills was irrelevant.
He’ll pass just as much legislation as a private citizen as he ever passed as a congressman!
Yet today, he no longer needs his congressional seat to command an audience. He’s about to become the most famous GOP ex-congressman in the entire country.
Want a sneak peek of the future — his and ours?
I offer you four more slam-dunk, can’t-miss, guaranteed-to-happen predictions:
Prediction 1: The mainstream media will roll out the red carpet and transform Thomas Massie into a martyr.
Hey, as The Free Press noted, they were already on his bandwagon:
[M]ainstream media coverage portrayed Massie as principled and moral for his defiance of Trump. Massie “is no ordinary politician,” a New York Times profile tells us. “Ever since Daniel Boone crossed the Cumberland Gap into what is now Kentucky, the state has served as an incubator for colorful figures who stand out for their quirks, their rejection of party orthodoxy, and their national success despite long odds.” In The Atlantic, Massie is “The Republican Who Outsmarted Trump.”
Now that he lost, his media bandwagon will grow exponentially larger — because Massie is no longer a threat. He’s a politically neutered, out-of-power congressman who’s a constant thorn in President Trump’s side.
And the media can certainly work with that. He’ll be feted, applauded, and showered with praise!
Worst-case scenario for them, Massie will satisfy their “Republican quota” on roundtable interview shows (where he’ll reliably throw barbs at the president). Best-case scenario, he successfully splits the MAGA movement and divides the Republican Party.
Prediction 2: Over the short term, Massie will sign a (lucrative) book deal and a TV deal (most likely with CNN or MS NOW), and instead of retreating to his farm, we’ll be seeing him more than ever before.
For the mainstream media, it’s a match made in heaven — the enemy of my enemy is my friend. It’ll be a win-win relationship: Massie gets the exposure he so desperately craves, and the media gets a new blunt object to bludgeon the president.
He’s gone from Congress — and headed everywhere else.
Prediction 3: Massie will be a VERY popular guest on all the anti-Trump/anti-Israel podcasts (Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Megyn Kelly) and will likely launch a podcast of his own.
Carlson and company are promoting the idea that AIPAC, Zionists, and “Jewish money” control the Republican Party. While they (allegedly) supported Massie’s reelection bid, had he actually won, it would’ve undermined their argument: How powerful could AIPAC be if Massie crushed ’em in his primary? But because he lost, he’s proof-positive that AIPAC/the Jews control everything.
That makes him a VERY valuable piece of PR propaganda!
In their analysis, Massie wasn’t rejected by his Kentucky constituents because they preferred a congressman who (gasp!) cooperated with Trump. Or because Massie opposed the GOP’s Big Beautiful Bill. Or because Massie opposed border security. Or because he’d rather partner with Democrats like Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) than work with his own party.
Nah, it’s Israel, Israel, Israel!
And Massie will happily play ball: He’s already gone on the record, claiming his election was a “referendum on whether Israel gets to buy seats in Congress.” And in his concession speech:
Massie: I would have come out sooner but I had to call my opponent to concede and it took a while to find him in Tel Aviv pic.twitter.com/DmTkDfS17a
— Acyn (@Acyn) May 20, 2026
There’s a class of ex-MAGA podcasters with a Jew-fetish. They talk about Israel more than any other country. It’s become an obsession.
Thomas Massie will give ’em an excuse to talk about their favorite topic — Israel, AIPAC, and the evils of “Jewish money” — for months to come.
They’ll try their damnedest to turn him into a folk hero. And in turn, Massie will gain an army of digital supporters.
Which will be useful because…
Prediction 4: Thomas Massie will run for president in 2028 as the new Ron Paul.
Former Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) never had a shot at winning the GOP presidential nomination, but because of his ultra-loyal army of libertarian supporters, he had one of the highest basements. He could win between 15% and 20% of the vote almost anywhere in the country.
And in a crowded primary, that was good enough to consistently finish in the top three, four, or five.
For Thomas Massie, that’s perfect, because it means he’d survive long enough to advocate for libertarianism in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, and more — without having to worry about actually running the country. (Which, quite naturally, doesn’t interest him in the slightest.)
For a performative contrarian, that’s the best of both worlds!
Sen. Rand Paul, Massie’s fellow libertarian-leaning Kentuckian — and Ron Paul’s son — is probably eyeing the same 2028 political lane. One Kentuckian will have to cede to the other, because the libertarian lane only works if it’s unified. There aren’t enough libertarian voters if the demo is divided.
I suspect Paul will ultimately cede, because he’s about as likeable and charismatic as a wet towel. Thomas Massie now has a bigger profile — plus a far more compelling personal interest story, and (perhaps most importantly) Paul’s Senate seat will be up for reelection in 2028.
If Sen. Paul dawdles too long in a destined-to-fail 2028 presidential bid, he won’t have time to secure his Senate seat for another term.
The future is clear: Thomas Massie is leaving Congress, but he’s not going away.
He’s exactly where he’s always wanted to be.
One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First. It began with Mayor Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battle lines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.
We need your help to succeed!
As a PJ Media VIP member, you’ll receive exclusive access to our behind-the-paywall content, commenting privileges, and an ad-free experience. VIP Gold gets you the same level of “insider access” across our entire family of sites (PJ Media, Townhall, RedState, twitchy, Hot Air, and Bearing Arms). That means: More stories, more videos, more content, more fun, more conservatism, more EVERYTHING!
And if you CLICK HERE and use the promo code FIGHT you’ll receive a Trumpian 60% discount!
Thank you for your consideration.
