Getting rid of the Islamic terrorists who control Iran was not a stated goal of Donald Trump when the war began on the last day of March. Instead, Trump wanted to “create the conditions” for regime change.
That goal is tantalizingly close to being realized. As I outlined here, the Iranian economy is teetering on the brink of collapse. Amit Segal, writing in The Free Press, adds some additional background to those numbers.
Iran currently has a surplus of men with guns and a deficit of loyalty. The only things bridging that gap are fear and cash—and when the latter runs out, the former loses its edge. In a desperate bid for survival, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has begun cannibalizing the state, hoarding whatever cash remains at the cost of the rest of the system. Some regular army units and police forces have now gone unpaid for months.
These are not the ingredients for a peaceful transition. The regime will inevitably resort to massacres to keep its grip on power, but there comes a point where desperation will simply override fear. The ultimate result remains the same: the death of the Islamic Republic.
Segal sees the collapse happening over the next eight months if — and it’s a big “if” — the current blockade continues. As of now, some in the administration believe a “Memorandum of Understanding” (MOU) to end the war could be signed within the next 48 hours. Other observers are less optimistic.
It all depends on the fractured, grasping, murderous factions that are currently in charge in Iran. From what we can tell, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controls the military and some aspects of diplomacy. They will probably have veto power over any deal reached with the U.S. The foreign policy establishment, handling the logistics of negotiations and the technical aspects of any deal, will also have some sort of power to affect the outcome.
The religious faction may also have a final say in any peace deal. And the economic sector will have to approve aspects of the deal as well. With communications shattered by U.S. military action and worries over Israeli assassinations, connecting with all factions to get their approval in real time is a nightmare.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that “we don’t have to have the actual agreement written in one day.”
“This is highly complex and technical,” Rubio said “But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile,” he added.
This is what makes any deal at any time with Iran problematic. A few more weeks of the blockade, and Iran could see Weimar Republic-era inflation numbers.
Or, the war could be over on terms less than optimal for the U.S.
In its current form, the MOU would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to open the strait, limit Iran’s nuclear program and lift U.S. sanctions.
Those negotiations could happen in Islamabad or Geneva, two sources said.
Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the strait and the U.S. naval blockade would be gradually lifted during that 30-day period, according to a U.S. official.
If the negotiations collapse, U.S. forces would be able to restore the blockade or resume military action, the U.S. official said.
Zoom in: The duration of the moratorium on uranium enrichment is being actively negotiated, with three sources saying it would be at least 12 years and one putting 15 as a likely landing spot. Iran proposed a 5-year moratorium on enrichment and the U.S. demanded 20.
It’s no surprise that Trump wants the war to end and commerce to get back to normal. But to do that without seeing the end of the religious regime in Iran would be disappointing.
Then again, Iran cannot afford to be seen as surrendering to the U.S. They may find it necessary to fight on if any of the factions can paint the MOU as anything less than victory.
My own belief is that the blockade will not end anytime soon and Iran will continue their slow-motion economic collapse.
Editor’s Note: The mainstream media continues to deflect, gaslight, spin, and lie about President Trump, his administration, and conservatives.
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