The horse race for the 2028 Democratic Party nomination has not begun, but that doesn’t mean some fillies, mares, nags, and mules aren’t starting to make their way toward the dirt track. Good luck finding a thoroughbred.
Although the bell won’t sound for another year or so, the race will come upon us as fast as Democrats are running away from Eric Swalwell.
The track will be muddy. Primaries always are. And if Democrats hold to form, the race will be fixed. Just ask Bernie Sanders, anybody who ran against Joe Biden in 2020, or anybody who didn’t want Kamala Harris in 2024.
Assessing the Track Conditions
The contenders will also be facing strong headwinds. The party that has demonstrated a clear dislike of America will be facing an electorate just coming off the high of America 250 and amping up for the 2028 Olympics. “USA! USA! USA!” will trump “No Kings.”
Plus, the Democrats have been so consumed by Trump Derangement Syndrome that they’ll be flummoxed running without their Trump blinders on. They can’t run against a man who’s not in the race (and they can’t run against his accomplishments).
“Yes, let’s reopen the border! Let’s send crime skyrocketing! Let’s give Iran back its nukes! Let’s get back to chopping off the body parts of children and letting hairy men stomp on girls in sports!”
What could they say? “Vote for us because Donald Trump ragged on the Pope”?
So right out of the starting gate, the Democrats will be in for a slog.
The Racing Sheet
Who at this point appears to be considering joining the race?
Gavin Newsom is so badly itching to get to the White House it’s a wonder he didn’t join the ballroom construction crew just for the opportunity.
Harris just said she’s “thinking about” another run. (Pause for laughter.) Her chances? About the same as her word salads becoming a featured item at Golden Corral.
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker isn’t losing weight for the health of it. But is anybody going to place a bet on the politician who’s about to lose the Chicago Bears to Indiana?
Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin admits she’s considering a run. The first clue? Her participation in that odious video urging U.S. servicemembers to defy Trump’s orders. Nothing like a call to mutiny to raise your profile among the base. She’s also hanging out in Iowa. And it’s not like she’s there to see the “Field of Dreams” ballfield.
Slotkin will hide her CIA spook roots by touting her family’s farming roots. Fun fact: They’re the folks who brought us Ball Park Franks.
“Did someone say ‘franks’?” asked Pritzker.
Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly has been positioning himself by not only taking part in that mutiny video, which alone should disqualify him from being commander in chief, but through his continuous assaults on Trump. How’d that work out for Stephen Colbert? Fani Willis? Eric Swalwell? Call it the Trump curse, but the loudest enemies of Trump have a history of imploding.
Pete Buttigieg might try again. Sorry, Pothole Pete. Democrats tried the DEI thing with Harris. And even Democrats are not going to follow Trump with someone who makes Dylan Mulvaney look like the Marlboro Man.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer? Her actions during COVID-19 and witch-like aura make her a long shot.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro would be a strong contender, but today’s Democratic Party treats Jews worse than it treats MAGA.
Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey? No. Just no. If Democrats wanted a tear-soaked drama queen, they’d elect Susan Lucci.
Finally, there’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. According to Axios, the little progressive darling has been quietly making organizational moves for a potential run. Don’t underestimate AOC, particularly in the early furloughs.
- She’s a natural attention-grabber who will suck the oxygen away from lesser candidates.
- She wields social media skills like Zorro wields a sword.
- She’s already in the rarified Democrat air of being known by her initials, like JFK, LBJ, RBG … BLM, KKK …
- She’ll have the Democratic Socialists of America riding her. If they could elect as mayor of New York City a radical Islamist communist who’s barely a U.S. citizen and had nothing on his résumé but a famous mother and failed rap career, imagine what they can do with the charismatic bartender-turned-congresswoman.
“Did somebody say ‘bartender’?” asked Harris.
And they’re off … toward the debates.
Down the Stretch
Policy differences mean little in debates. Much more important are the dynamics and visuals. Think back to the 2020 Democratic primary. Tulsi Gabbard destroyed Harris’ campaign in 90 seconds. Not just because she exposed Harris’ atrocious record as California attorney general and San Francisco DA, but because of how Harris fell apart under the attack. She showed off her thin skin and weak chin. Democrats saw it. America saw it. Somehow the autopen missed it.
What can we expect during those early debates in 2027, assuming the above named candidates enter?
Newsom and AOC will jump to the front of the pack by virtue of their star quality, organization, and name recognition. The other candidates will play supporting roles or be extras. By virtue of being one-two, Newsom and AOC will at some point be positioned next to each other on the debate stage. The tall central-casting candidate from California next to the short girly-girl who pretends to be from the New York hood.
As terrible as it may be to say, the simple truth is standing next to Newsom, AOC is going to look like his nanny.
“Did somebody say ‘nanny’?” asks Harris’ husband, Doug Emhoff.
All told, a safe early bet is California Golden Boy to win, Bronx Bartender to place, Pennsylvania Hebrew to show.
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