First, let’s start with the big news that dropped late yesterday. After numerous interventions by Donald Trump, including an expletive-laden shouting match with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel and Lebanon reached a deal to implement their previous ceasefire agreement. Lebanon’s leaders insisted that they had reached an agreement with Hezbollah to stop all hostilities in place:
Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a full ceasefire, contingent on Hezbollah halting attacks and withdrawing its operatives from the area south of the Litani River in Lebanon, according to a joint statement from the U.S., Israel and Lebanon.
Why it matters: Hezbollah had already said it would agree to a full ceasefire, but it was not immediately clear whether the Shia militia would accept the terms agreed by the Israeli and Lebanese governments.
A full ceasefire in Lebanon is one of the key demands Iranian officials have made as part of their negotiations with the Trump administration on an agreement for ending the war.
Driving the news: On Monday, President Trump put the brakes on Israel’s plan to launch massive strikes on Beirut in retaliation for Hezbollah’s drone and missile strikes.
Sounds great, right? Yes … except for the old news that literally everyone could have easily predicted that arrived this morning. Despite representations from Hezbollah allies in Lebanon’s parliament, the Iranian proxy army refuses to abide by any ceasefire that either disarms them or leaves Israel in southern Lebanon:
Hezbollah chief says any ceasefire must include southern Lebanon, warns ‘resistance’ will continue as long as Israeli forces remain, and says northern Israel will not be secure while Lebanese villages are under attack. https://t.co/EQNkoBkAQm
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 4, 2026
• Hezbollah rejects the Washington Declaration and direct Lebanon-Israel talks.
• Hezbollah says disarming the group is a red line.
• Hezbollah demands a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.
• Hezbollah says any ceasefire must cover all of Lebanon
• Hezbollah says…
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 4, 2026
• Hezbollah says resistance will continue as long as Israeli forces remain in Lebanon.
• Hezbollah says it has made no commitment to stop attacks.
• Hezbollah warns northern Israel “will not be safe” while Lebanese villages are under attack.
• Hezbollah rejects any foreign involvement in decisions regarding its weapons.
• Hezbollah calls on the Lebanese government to end direct negotiations with Israel.
• Hezbollah says national unity against Israel should take priority over internal political disputes.
Welcome back to the Hezbollah Hokey Pokey, everyone! It’s like the Hamas Hokey Pokey, only with more verses, apparently.
The most amusing point in this set of demands is how they directly contradict what Nabih Berri claimed three days ago. The Shi’ite parliamentary leader insisted to the US that Hezbollah would stop all of its attacks if Israel refrained from attacking Beirut, and that they would cooperate with the ceasefire. Trump then got on the phone to berate Netanyahu for not trusting Berri and Trump, while Netanyahu must have fumed about the way Hezbollah was playing everyone.
Nevertheless, Netanyahu followed through with talks over Trump’s ceasefire, only to have Hezbollah dance to another verse of their hokey pokey, or if one prefers, the Tehran Two-Step. The IRGC is running this show, and they are using Lebanon to get the US and Israel to retreat from all theaters of engagement. None of the IRGC’s entities negotiate in good faith, and none of them will ever do so except in the last extremis of survival. This is merely the latest example in an unbroken 47-year record.
So what now? If Trump wants to take the smart approach, he could have Israel open up a full war on Hezbollah in Beirut while tightening the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian violations of that ceasefire should be met with escalating retribution. Instead, Iran is dictating the strategic pace, and Trump seems inclined to allow it – up to a point:
President Trump has told aides privately that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if Tehran kills American troops, U.S. officials said, insisting that the weekslong pause in airstrikes remains intact despite a steady stream of violent skirmishes.
The president’s reluctance to reignite the war suggests he might be willing to withstand smaller flare-ups for weeks—or even months—to avoid a broader conflict in the Middle East.
The U.S. and Iran this week engaged in some of the most intense fighting yet since a ceasefire went into effect in early April, with Iran firing missiles and drones on regional U.S. bases and Kuwait’s international airport. The attacks left one person dead.
Netanyahu doesn’t have to allow the IRGC to set the strategic pace, however. If Hezbollah won’t stop firing, then the IDF can go back to its full-scale operations to actually win the war, at least in Lebanon. And perhaps they will, sooner than Trump would like at this point.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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