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Iran’s Last Chance To Avoid Finding Out What’s Behind Door Number B-2 – HotAir

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April 20, 2026
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Iran Threatens Ceasefire As Blockade Bites – HotAir

Another weekend in the Gulf, and another frenetic series of events has brought the region to the brink yet again. It’s not the first time we’ve reached a crisis crescendo in the seven-week-old Operation Epic Fury, and it probably will not be the last. President Donald Trump indicated two weeks ago that the long-promised, civilization-ending strike was not only on the table, but imminent. That abated a bit when the two-week ceasefire went into effect, but American and Israeli military resources have rapidly been recalibrating to deliver that blow if the ceasefire ends on Wednesday without a signed deal. 

On Friday, things seemed to be looking up. A few dozen ships navigated the trek through the Strait of Hormuz, including a passenger cruise ship, and 20 more made it early Saturday morning. President Trump seemed buoyed by the prospects of a deal taking shape when Round Two of talks in Islamabad commenced on Tuesday.  

And then, a fast-attack boat shot at a couple tankers, turning them around, and bringing traffic through the Strait once again to a halt later Saturday morning. 





That was immediately followed up by a flurry of ball-spiking from the regime. 

Yes, someone drafted a tweet for Mojtaba the Cardboard. There was more.

Keep in mind, this all came less than 24 hours after Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas “Tehran Tim” Araghchi, made this declaration. 

Nevertheless, Strait crossings ceased after the gunfire. How did the Trump administration and Pentagon react? About as you would expect. 

Oh, and the Ford carrier group is back in the game. 

In the Oval Office on Saturday morning, President Trump was not pleased with Iran’s stunt. 

Shortly after coming out of the Situation Room a bit later, Trump said he would know by the end of the day Saturday whether a deal was possible or not, and how that might dictate the course of action this week. 





And indeed, by the end of Saturday, there were indications that negotiations were moving closer to a deal. This is from Iran’s Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Ghalibaf.

Or was it? This was also released by Ghalibaf within minutes of the last one. 

Despite the rhetoric, there is one constant remaining for the remnants of the rump regime in Iran – the blockade is on, it’s working, and it’s costing the regime dearly. This is an overhead satellite shot of Kharg Island, which used to be one of the busiest oil docks in the world. 

Add to that a little accident that struck one of Iran’s remaining shipbuilding yards over the weekend. 

By the end of the evening, the mood in the administration reportedly had soured. Tweets like these surfaced that signaled the President had come to the conclusion that if Iran chose the hard way, so be it. 

And then there was this ominous post late Saturday evening, which turned out to be pretty prophetic as Sunday dawned on the Middle East. 

Allow me to introduce to you the latest cargo ship in the possession of the United States Navy.





This Iranian-flagged ship, bound for Iran that left China, was hounded by U.S. Naval forces for six hours to heave-to or turn around or else they would be fired upon and boarded. They didn’t, and we did. 

Not too shabby what a few rounds of 5-inch MK45 rounds through the engine room from half a mile away can do to stop a ship and make it a lot easier for Marines to board. 

After three consecutive rounds on target, transforming the Touska immediately into a landing platform, in came the Marines. 

Here was the President online shortly after that. 

 And it wasn’t even inside the Strait, either, where the ship was interdicted. 

After reinforcing which country actually is or is not allowing traffic in and out of the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump dropped this beauty. 

We’ll get to the uncertainty over the talks in Islamabad on Tuesday in a moment, but the reaction to the capture of the slow boat from China was entertaining. 

Yes, the ceasefire, which was agreed to only as a direct result of the American blockade of Iranian ports, not jeopardized because of it. And it was allegedly violated by the ones enforcing the blockade against the nation they’re blockading. And the country complaining about the violation is the same one boasting 15 hours earlier about explicitly violating the terms of said ceasefire – safe, immediate, and complete freedom to navigate the Strait – by firing on two oil tankers. 





Of course, there is no mechanism. There are no tolls being collected. There is no Iranian-regulated activity. One speedboat shot at two tankers. The skies are once again full of helicopters and A-10 Warthogs patrolling for any other armed, suicidal IRGC nut on an inner tube with an Evenrude Bungee tied to it. I like our odds in the long run. My favorite, though, was this post from inside the regime. 

Again, the definition of maritime piracy would start and end with shooting at two oil tankers in international waters. But then again, that may just be me. 

Of course, Donald Trump still has the, pardon the pun, trump card to play. 

Michael Waltz, the United States Ambassador to the United Nations, echoed the sentiments of the President and the upper hand he has on the rump regime in Tehran. This was on Fox News Sunday with Shannon Bream. 

But even with the increased rhetoric and escalation in the Strait making a dying, fragile ceasefire even more dependent on life support, Donald Trump, the dealmaker, remained cautiously optimistic. 

Now you might be asking yourself what on Earth would give the President reason to believe this. Buried in all the activity and bluster I just chronicled for you was this release from the regime. 

Russia is not getting its hands on it, and the IAEA is still trying to find Hans Blix’ backside with both hands. If the highly-enriched uranium gets handed over, it’s going to be to the Americans. Of course, Iran has to actually do this, something I’ll believe when I see it. 

However, it’s nothing short of astounding that in the middle of a weekend blizzard of rhetorical and military smokescreening, Iran is giving Donald Trump his prime objective – removing the source material for 11 nuclear warheads from the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. And if you want to be Machiavellian about it, perhaps all the theater in the Strait for the last 48 hours, kinetic and rhetorical, was just that – a smokescreen to obscure the fact that Iran has caved. If this is really going to happen, you can understand why Trump believes he’s got the concept of a deal in place. 

The next round of talks in Islamabad is supposed to begin on Tuesday, with both sides arriving Monday night. They have to begin on Tuesday, because after Wednesday, the ceasefire expires. President Trump has shown no desire to extend it and let the Iranians stall any longer. He’s up to here with that. It’s time to close this deal one way or the other. But that doesn’t mean that the nonsense about the talks themselves, let alone what they allegedly will be talking about, continues. 

Iran set preconditions before any future talks.





Of course, the United States replied with the equivalent of, ‘Pound sand, strong letter to follow.’

An hour later, the regime apparently had a change of heart about showing up in Islamabad. 

The U.S. was originally going to send the same three as the last round – Vice-President J.D. Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner…until Vance was held back. 

An hour later, after only God and Donald Trump know what was discussed between Iran, Pakistan and the White House, Vance is going after all.

Alayna Treene, one of CNN’s White House correspondents, reports that things were pretty fluid all day, and that’s what explains the discrepancy about whether or not Vance would go. 

As we enter the 24-hour period before talks happen, or don’t – either being possible at this stage – let’s bring the important stuff into focus and then analyze what the Middle East and world might look like on Thursday. 

Ambassador Waltz reminded the Meet the Press audience on Sunday that everything, including bridges, power plants, and the grid, is on the table if talks do not produce a deal. 

Donald Trump said this is the regime’s absolute last chance. 





Trump does not want a repeat of Round One – laying everything on the table and having 71 Iranians unable to sign the dotted line before going back to Tehran to clear it on high. It’s now or never. And by the time talks are held, the contents of what was aboard the captured Touska will be known to Trump and his negotiating team. If there was anything in one or several of those containers that puts China in an uncomfortable and embarrassing position, you can take it to the bank that the President will use that as leverage to apply even more pressure to the Iranians.  

In addition to the nugget earlier about Iran allegedly willing to give up its highly-enriched uranium comes this news late Sunday night/early Monday morning. 

Those are two admissions on behalf of the regime that are diametrically opposed to their rhetoric and actions all weekend. The markets were down in pre-trading, and oil was poised to start higher going into Monday’s trading day. If the perception going into talks Tuesday is that Iran has finally bent the knee on hijacking the Strait, it’s going to be a wild day on Wall and Broad. 

And if talks do not result in a deal by Wednesday, at a very minimum, you’ll see targeted strikes resume on all of the regime remnants, both on the suit side and on the uniform side, until we plumb leadership depths down to lower levels that may be more inclined to negotiate in good faith. If talks go sideways and Trump keeps to his red line, satellite views of North Korea will look eerily similar to the Islamic Republic of Iran after the B-2’s get done with it.  

I cannot tell you confidently what the outcome of Tuesday’s negotiations will be, because it’s been an absolute roller coaster all weekend leading up to them. But there is one thing I can tell you with absolute certainty. 

Kamala Harris is just as delusional as anyone in the Iranian regime. 

 







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