I expected this, or at least some variation of it.
I wrote about this on Wednesday: Iran demanded the ceasefire in Lebanon to create a steady casus belli they can use to jerk the United States around and drive a wedge between Israel and the United States.
Demand a ceasefire, then get Hezbollah to keep poking at Israel with attacks to generate defensive responses. Then use those defensive responses to cancel talks or jerk us around, claiming that Israel violated the ceasefire.
🇺🇸🇮🇷Vice President JD Vance postponed a planned trip to Switzerland for U.S.-Iran talks expected to begin Friday, the White House said. My report on @axioshttps://t.co/HQz1bQ3J2t
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) June 19, 2026
This was, at least to me, as predictable as the sun rising in the East. Hell, even I predicted it, and I am not a genius.
Well, maybe I am. If so, I am a “stable genius.”
Vice President JD Vance postponed a planned trip to Switzerland for U.S.-Iran talks expected to begin Friday, the White House said.
Why it matters: The White House said the reason for the change of plans was “logistics.” But there were some indications that the background for the decision is connected to the shaky ceasefire in Lebanon.
What they’re saying: At a press conference on Thursday, Vance said the plans for the talks hadn’t been finalized and mentioned the fact that Iranian officials might have technical challenges with their travel arrangements.
- “The U.S. delegation has been prepared to depart at the first available opportunity. But the logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable,” the White House said in a statement on Thursday night.
- “As of now the Vice President is not departing tonight. We look forward to beginning technical talks as soon as possible.”
Driving the news: On Thursday afternoon, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei authorized Iranian negotiators to conduct direct talks with the U.S., while stressing it ‘does not signify acceptance of the enemy’s views.'”
- Several hours later, Iran’s chief negotiator Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a statement thanking Khamenei and vowing to maintain Iran’s red lines in the talks with the U.S., but didn’t mention any change of plans.
Between the lines: A U.S. official said Tehran’s claims about alleged Israeli violations of the ceasefire in Lebanon could be the reason for the talks not happening on Friday.
Context: Israel’s military conducted a strike in southern Lebanon earlier on Thursday, killing four people.
- On Thursday night, after the Israeli ambassador’s statement and before Vance announced he wasn’t going, intense fighting between the Israeli military and Hezbollah erupted in southern Lebanon.
There are, obviously, no “logistics” problems for Vance. I am pretty certain that the United States military could execute a pre-planned trip to Switzerland. The reality is that Iran said they were not going to show up because “Israel violated the ceasefire.”
A one-sided ceasefire, for sure. Hezbollah has been sending drones and other ordnance at Israel and Israeli soldiers. There is, in fact, intense fighting there, just as Iran wants. It gives them an excuse to jerk us around and humiliate our Vice President, and to get our president to pressure Israel to accept being attacked whenever Hezbollah (Iran) decides to.
Here’s your reminder of how Hezbollah is “upholding the ceasefire” in the last couple of days:
💥 June 17th:
10:15 – 1 IED
10:57 – 2 Explosive UAVs
12:35 – 9 Rockets
12:37 – 2 Rockets
12:51 – 1 Missile
12:56 – 2 Rockets
13:04 – 6 Rockets
16:53 – 2 Rockets
17:31 – 3…— Ambassador Yechiel (Michael) Leiter (@yechielleiter) June 18, 2026
Here’s your reminder of how Hezbollah is “upholding the ceasefire” in the last couple of days:
💥 June 17th:
10:15 – 1 IED
10:57 – 2 Explosive UAVs
12:35 – 9 Rockets
12:37 – 2 Rockets
12:51 – 1 Missile
12:56 – 2 Rockets
13:04 – 6 Rockets
16:53 – 2 Rockets
17:31 – 3 Rockets
17:38 – 1 Rocket
18:24 – 2 Rockets
18:39 – 5 Rockets
18:50 – 5 Rockets
18:54 – 2 Rockets
19:12 – 5 Rockets
19:21 – 4 Rockets
19:37 – 3 Rockets
19:46 – 6 Rockets
20:56 – 6 Rockets
💥 June 18th:
01:00 – 5 terrorists approached forward defense line
06:57 – 1 Explosive UAV
07:28 – 1 Explosive UAV
08:16 – 2 Explosive UAVs
08:23 – 1 Explosive UAV
08:51 – IED explosion
There is a point to this: keep a steady stream of low-level, just below the threshold attacks going to create an environment where Iran can keep the pressure on, but not enough to get Trump to throw the dealmaking away. Just as during the sitzkrieg “ceasefire,” when Iran took potshots at its neighbors without Trump responding (until they hit a US helicopter, which apparently was a red line), Iran keeps the initiative and controls the tempo.
They have the initiative. Enough to make the Vice President of the United States wait until they are good and ready. And it is “Israel’s fault.” I guarantee that Israel will get rebuked by the United States for this, despite being the original victim of an attack.
MORE: Iran’s threats to collapse the agreement unless Israel ceases operations and withdraws from Lebanon likely reflect a deliberate effort to compel the United States to pressure Israel to end operations. Iran has surely observed reports in Western media that President Donald… https://t.co/UizKlF2xD2 pic.twitter.com/JFqbCEbD3T
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) June 19, 2026
MORE: Iran’s threats to collapse the agreement unless Israel ceases operations and withdraws from Lebanon likely reflect a deliberate effort to compel the United States to pressure Israel to end operations. Iran has surely observed reports in Western media that President Donald Trump prioritizes preserving the deal and has pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to limit military operations in Lebanon.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, despite Iranian insistence that Israel must halt its campaign in Lebanon as part of the MoU. The IDF stated on June 18 that it will remain deployed within the 10-kilometer-deep IDF “security zone” in southern Lebanon to remove Hezbollah threats to Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and Israeli residents in northern Israel. Two Israeli officials told Reuters on June 18 that Israel recently held talks with the United States to discuss US approval for continued IDF presence in southern Lebanon. Israeli media reported on June 18 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told US President Donald Trump during a phone call that Israel will not leave southern Lebanon “as long as Israel’s security needs require it.” Trump stated in a social media post on June 18 that the United States expects a complete ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel. Hezbollah, Iranian officials, and Iranian media have continued to claim that the US-Iran agreement requires Israel to cease operations against Hezbollah and ultimately withdraw from southern Lebanon. Both sides have continued to engage one another in southern Lebanon, including beyond the Yellow Line.
Forget for the moment whose side you are on and just look at the negotiations in terms of who has played things well, and Iran comes out ahead by many points. They will continue to extract concessions from us, and by extension Israel, while creating more and more breathing room for conducting gray-zone warfare against Israel and the United States.
Currently, as long as we are committed to negotiations, Iran has far more freedom to gain leverage than we do.
It’s obvious that Iran sees the conflict in Lebanon as the key to gaining leverage. Poking at Israel and getting responses time and again, until Trump throws Israel under the bus, is their main goal. A united US and Israel is a very powerful combination. They intend to divide and conquer the Great Satan and the Little Satan.
Will Trump and Vance cooperate with this plan? It’s hard to say. Vance has certainly made clear that he holds Israel in low regard right now and sees its security needs as a significant obstacle to overcome. Trump, I think, is more sympathetic to Israel in general, but clearly worries that its needs are at odds with his.
JD Vance has warned Israel that the US is the only friend it has left and that it cannot “kill” its way out of problems.
🔗: https://t.co/YqVROexnpp pic.twitter.com/OIl8IaPU6p
— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 18, 2026
Iran is going to play on the Trump administration’s eagerness for a deal to give it room to hurt its biggest regional enemy, knowing that Trump will work mightily to restrain its ability to respond unless its existence is at stake. “Minor” attacks, or as Trump says, “taps,” must be borne.
It’s doubtful that Israel can accept that, and that is exactly what Iran wants: bring down the Netanyahu government, divide the US and Israel, and extend the talks long beyond the 60 days.
Yesterday, I almost wrote a piece predicting that Iran wouldn’t show up at the talks in Switzerland, but to be honest, I thought it was a bit risky to bet that so early in the talks. I knew it would come, but wasn’t sure when. This was the smart play for them, for sure, but also risky.
They are betting that Trump will chase the deal, giving a bit more each time they threaten to walk. That’s a risky bet, but they seem pretty good at playing the odds.
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