Yesterday, I boldly predicted there’d be an ambush at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. But I promise you, I didn’t mean literally.
Not even the world’s greatest mentalist, Oz Pearlman, predicted it!
But perhaps we should’ve seen it coming. After all, President Donald Trump has already faced more assassination attempts than any U.S. president since Abraham Lincoln — and he still has 2+ years to go. Nobody would be shocked if another unhinged leftist tried again.
At this point, sadly, assassination attempts are a semi-yearly occurrence.
When we witness something shocking, audience reaction bounces like a rubber ball: It stretches, moves, and contorts before finding its equilibrium. Today and tomorrow, the American people won’t know how to feel about the Correspondents’ Dinner shooting. Their thoughts and emotions are still marinating in their minds.
But we have a pretty good idea where their minds will probably go.
First, human nature is gonna human nature: We’ll look for low-hanging fruit that explains away the event, so we won’t have to deal with it. So, if it turns out that the suspected shooter, Cole Allen, is a psycho who escaped a mental hospital — or someone in the Secret Service did something stupid, like forget to check a hallway at the Washington Hilton — we’ll assign blame and move on.
Never underestimate the capacity of the American people to roll up our sleeves… and totally ignore a serious problem. (We do it all the time.)
But if the truth is messier than that, and Mr. Allen seems more like a run-of-the-mill leftist than a Joker-level crackpot, the Democratic Party will have a PR problem. Depending on how the narrative develops, it could even jeopardize their (very) lofty hopes for the midterms.
That’s the weird paradox: The more ordinary Mr. Allen appears to be, the more dangerous the threat to the Democrats.
Worst-case scenario for the Dems: It’s entirely unclear who, how, or what radicalized Mr. Allen. The bigger the mystery, the bigger the PR problem. That’s potentially a PR headache with very long legs — because it invites thousands of media stories exploring all the interesting ways a mentally unstable leftist could be radicalized:
Maybe it was left-wing America’s newfound “solidarity” with Hamas! Maybe it was mainstreaming hate-merchants like Hasan Piker! Maybe it was liberals’ hysterical criticism of ICE! Maybe it’s their embrace of Epstein-style conspiracy theories! Maybe it’s the TikTok algorithm! Maybe it was constantly comparing Trump to a Nazi! Maybe these personal attacks against Republicans have FINALLY gone too far!
With his bucks and bravado, Donald Trump certainly isn’t a sympathetic victim — especially not to liberals. Which means, the media focus will be less about his attempted murder, and more about its self-analysis of the liberal mind: the left-wing media writing left-wing stories about left-wing people for left-wing audiences.
That’s bad for two reasons.
First, they won’t be able to bash Republicans with their usual gusto. (At least for a little while.) Not enough oxygen in the room: Tonally, it wouldn’t fit, and besides, hyperbolic attacks backfire when the attacker is considered crazier than the target.
Instead of feeding red meat to its base, the Dems will be feeding ‘em tofu.
And that’s not a great way to fire up your base before the midterms. Going from “Trump is Hitler” and “Democracy dies in darkness” to “Garsh, maybe platforming Hasan Piker wasn’t the wisest decision” doesn’t make liberal hearts go a-flutter.
Second, political elections are binary choices: Audiences are comparing and contrasting Republicans with Democrats. Which means, Republicans don’t have to be perfect to win.
They just have to be better.
And so far, so good. In opinion poll after opinion poll, we’re still seeing the same thing we saw in 2024: The American people don’t like Republicans — but they DESPISE Democrats.
Newsweek wrote about it last month: Democrats Are Still Significantly Less Popular Than Donald Trump
Even as President Donald Trump’s approval rating has slipped, recent polls show that many Americans still view him more favorably than the Democratic Party.
[…]
These polls could be a red flag for Democrats about how voters view the party and its leadership as it approaches the 2026 midterm elections, when members hope to reclaim control of the House and Senate.
[…]
“Democrats have also, for the most part, decided to try to match a lot of the over-the-top rhetoric of President Trump, and that doesn’t serve them well. People want a fresher and less divisive alternative, and they’re not getting it from the Democrats,” [Grant Davis Reeher, professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek.]
We judge people, brands, and political parties by the company they keep. That’s why brand ambassadors are so valuable — and why choosing the wrong one (i.e. Dylan Mulvaney and Bud Light), can cost you dearly.
The more “ordinary connections” between Cole Allen and the Democratic Party, the bigger the PR danger.
The Democratic Party can’t afford to be perceived as the party of nutjobs, psychopaths, and unhinged lunatics. No party can. In a contest of comparisons, that’s a losing hand.
Especially for a party that’s hellbent on making the midterms a referendum on how evil, deranged, and unhinged the president is!
Don’t expect any mea culpas from the media. The press isn’t honest enough — or self-aware enough — to recognize its own culpability. From its point of view, Donald Trump is solely responsible for our hyper-politicized age; it was all his fault.
There won’t be any “Are we the baddies?” stories.
But there’ll still be lots and lots of stories, I absolutely, 100% guarantee you — and if you think otherwise, you don’t understand the media industry: Journalists, after all, are professional storytellers. And EVERYONE at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner just witnessed a helluva story!
They’ll find a reason to talk about this for a loooooong time.
Which sets the stage for a PR ambush: If the Democrats can’t separate themselves from Mr. Allen, hundreds of media stories will explore all the common threads: Each cog of the left-wing onboarding process will be scrutinized.
Not because the media has flipped on the Democrats (of course), but because self-aggrandizing journalists will be incentivized to keep on talking about the single most exciting moment of their careers.
Trust me: If reporters like Brian Williams are bragging about fake bullets, you better believe they’ll talk nonstop about the real thing. They’re going to make themselves the hero of their story — whether the Democrats like it or not.
And if Mr. Allen is indistinguishable from your ordinary, everyday Democrat, that’s electoral poison in 2026.
So I guess I was right about there being an ambush. But holy moley, I didn’t mean like this.
One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First. It began with Mayor Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battle lines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.
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