We’re six months out from the midterms and President Trump’s approval rating is substantially underwater. Even worse, it’s not impossible that Democrats could flip the four seats they need to take the Senate. Newsweek used betting markets to game out the odds.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 to take control. The key races to watch include Democratic pick up opportunities like Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas and Florida and seats Republicans could flip like Michigan, Georgia and New Hampshire…
Despite favorable individual race prices, markets for overall Senate control are essentially even, meaning bettors think control of the Senate is going to be tough to call.
In Kalshi’s “Which party will win the U.S. Senate?” the odds are at around 52 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic, and on Polymarket’s “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?” it is a 50-50 split.
My own guess, and that’s all it is, is that those odds are pretty accurate at this moment, but I expect the odds are likely to shift back in favor of Republicans in the months before the election.
In any case, the fact that it’s even possible Democrats could take the Senate has some people thinking ahead. What if we could shift one more vote our direction, maybe someone who seems to be perpetually disliked by his current party. According to Politico, an effort to flip Fetterman is already underway.
The political environment is curdling for Republicans, and the quiet campaign to lure Fetterman across the aisle is underway.
Trump has made the sell, offering his patented total and complete endorsement plus a financial windfall to the Pennsylvanian. A handful of Senate Republicans are also gently feeling out Fetterman and responding to his concerns over the prospect of defecting from the Democratic Party, multiple high-level GOP officials tell me…
But the first-term Democrat — who’s infuriated his party with his harder line on immigration and staunch support for Israel, Trump nominees, government funding bills and most recently the president’s ballroom — isn’t yet persuaded.
“I’m not changing,” Fetterman told me in an interview Friday when I asked if he was ruling out both becoming a Republican or turning independent. “I’m a Democrat, and I’m staying one.“
Fetterman was pretty blunt, telling Politico he’d be a “s***ty Republican.”
On the other hand, the story insinuates that maybe Sen. Fetterman isn’t dead set against the idea of becoming an independent. Apparently, he doesn’t attend many Democratic Party functions at this point. He’s no longer comfortable there.
Meanwhile, “Fetterman has now started to hang out in the Senate GOP cloakroom during long votes.” He’s also become close personal friends with two Republican Senators.
He does, though, spend considerable time with Republicans, particularly the affable Britts and McCormicks, who’ve all but adopted Fetterman and his wife, Gisele.
Classmates together in 2022, Britt bonded with Fetterman early, when he was seen as far more of a liberal. The two cemented their friendship when Britt visited her colleague after he entered Walter Reed hospital to address mental health challenges. They already had a natural kinship because the 6’8” Fetterman had bonded with the 6’8” Wesley Britt, a former NFL offensive lineman. Fetterman calls Wesley “The Big Unit™” in their group text chats, Britt shared last week at a joint appearance with the two senators moderated by NBC’s Kristen Welker…
He spends just as much time with the McCormicks. Fetterman has attended Washington social functions as a guest of his fellow Pennsylvania senator and, a day after his appearance with Britt last week, he sat on stage with Dina Powell McCormick, a Meta executive, at a luncheon conversation dedicated to artificial intelligence.
It’s amazing how much being kind to someone (instead of shouting at him online) makes a difference. There’s no guarantee any of this will happen, but it probably wouldn’t take too many more jabs from his own party before he thinks about it pretty seriously.
So Democrats are day-dreaming about flipping the four seats they need to create a 51-49 Senate, one that could block all of Trump’s future confirmations. But in that case, it’s Sen. John Fetterman who becomes the all-important 51st vote. At this point, whether or not he changes his party label, the Democratic Party may have a hard time relying on him for some issues. He has not been well-treated by the party’s progressive base. Imagine how much worse that gets when he’s the deciding vote on…everything. How long before he’s had enough of the abuse?
All that to say, I don’t think it will happen before the election, but the closer Dems get to retaking the Senate, the more I could see it happening after the election.
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