President Trump is the odds‑on favorite to win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, outpacing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Pope Leo XIV, the late Charlie Kirk and humanitarian aid groups across the globe, according to new betting lines.
Mr. Trump has long thirsted for the award, arguing that his accomplishments — including facilitating the Abraham Accords — merit the recognition.
More recently, he has suggested that his pursuit of Greenland is driven in part by lingering resentment toward the Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize Committee.
Now, on the one‑year anniversary of his return to office, handicappers see him as the front-runner. BetOnline lists Mr. Trump at 5/1 odds.
That aligns neatly with Mr. Trump’s own view.
“I can’t think of anybody in history that should get the Nobel Prize more than me,” he recently said.
Close behind at 6/1 are the Emergency Response Rooms in Sudan, a network of grassroots activists who have provided humanitarian aid throughout the Sudanese civil war that began in 2023.
Rounding out the top tier are Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) at 8/1 and Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi at 9/1. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees and Russian political activist Yulia Navalnaya both stand at 10/1.
Mr. Zelenskyy and gun‑control activist David Hogg are listed at 16/1. Pope Leo XIV is at 20/1, and Kirk — who was gunned down last year — is at 50/1.
Predictive markets tell a different story. Kalshi, for instance, shows Mr. Trump running third at 12%, behind Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at 22% and Doctors Without Borders at 15%.
Mr. Trump’s fixation on the award is seeping into his foreign policy. He recently informed Jonas Gahr Store, Norway’s leader, that the Nobel snub was influencing his thinking on Greenland.
“Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America,” Mr. Trump wrote in a message.
Mr. Trump has, however, received a Nobel Peace Prize — courtesy of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who presented him with her award during a recent meeting at the White House.
The Nobel committee has said the prize itself is not transferable.
