The Senate primaries in Texas on Tuesday could set up an epic November battle pitting far-left firebrand Rep. Jasmine Crockett against far-right MAGA favorite and state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Mr. Paxton, voter surveys show, is poised to prevail in Tuesday’s primary against four-term incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who is fighting for his political future amid flatlining poll numbers.
Mr. Paxton is also positioned to defeat GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt, who trails both Mr. Paxton and Mr. Cornyn but has double-digit support.
Mr. Paxton enjoys a small but consistent lead over Mr. Cornyn, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. He also appears to have the backing of the state’s hardline conservatives, who are more likely to vote in primaries.
The polling average shows Mr. Paxton 10 points ahead of Mr. Hunt, who represents a congressional district in Houston.
The latest polling average from Decision Desk HQ puts Mr. Paxton in the lead with 31.9%, Mr. Cornyn in second place with 27.7% and Mr. Hunt trailing in third with 19.3%.
All three lawmakers have framed themselves as MAGA candidates, but President Trump has notably refrained from endorsing anyone.
Mr. Trump traveled to Texas Friday and touted all three candidates but did not commit to anyone, calling two of them “great.” Mr. Cornyn traveled with Mr. Trump aboard Air Force One from Washington to Texas.
“We have a great attorney general, Ken Paxton…and we have a great senator, John Cornyn,” Mr. Trump said. “They’re in a little bit of a race. Going to be an interesting one. They’re both great people.”
Later, the president referred to Mr. Hunt as “another friend of mine who’s doing very well.”
“Wesley Hunt is doing a good job,” Mr. Trump said. “You do have an interesting election. Texas is so good.”
The president told reporters that he has “pretty much” decided who he would endorse in the primary, but declined to say which candidate he wants.
Without Mr. Trump weighing in, Tuesday’s outcome will likely result in none of the three GOP candidates securing more than the 50% of the vote needed to avoid a runoff election in May between the two top finishers.
Polls show Mr. Paxton opening up a big lead over Mr. Cornyn in a runoff scenario.
In a hypothetical head‑to‑head runoff matchup in a University of Houston poll, Mr. Paxton leads Mr. Cornyn by 51% to 40%.
The outcome of the Democratic primary is uncertain. Ms. Crockett, one of the most outspoken Trump critics in Congress, is tied in an average of polls with state Rep. James Talarico as the two battle for the Democratic nomination. But the most recent polls, including one released on Thursday, show her with a big lead.
A University of Houston poll taken the first two weeks of February showed Ms. Crockett leading Mr. Talarico, 56% to 46%.
Mr. Talarico is pitching himself to voters as the underdog in the race, while Ms. Crockett is campaigning as the Democrat who will work the hardest to stop Mr. Trump and Republicans. She’s called for impeaching Mr. Trump a third time and during her Senate campaign launch told the president, “I’m coming for you.”
The polls point to Mr. Paxton and Ms. Crockett facing off in a general election battle that would pit one of the most anti-Trump candidates in the state against one of its most hardline MAGA conservatives.
The Texas Senate seat is considered relatively safe for Republicans. But Democrats, who have been trying to flip the seat for decades, believe they’ll have an opening if Mr. Paxton defeats Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Hunt in the primary.
They consider Mr. Paxton the most vulnerable of the three GOP candidates in a November matchup against either Ms. Crockett or Mr. Talarico.
Mr. Paxton, 63, has served as Texas Attorney General for a decade and, along the way, was impeached by the Texas House, indicted on three felony charges of state securities fraud and accused of marital infidelity that led his wife of 38 years to file for divorce.
He’s also accused of firing four top deputies who reported allegations of corruption to the FBI. The firings resulted in a lawsuit and subsequent $6.6 million judgement against the state that taxpayers must now pay.
Mr. Cornyn warned voters if Mr. Paxton is on the ballot in November, his scandals will cost the party the Senate seat and other down-ballot races. He’s been running campaign ads centered on Mr. Paxton’s legal and personal troubles.
“Republicans up and down the ticket will pay the price of having an albatross like the corrupt attorney general hung around their neck,” Mr. Cornyn said.
Mr. Cornyn has trailed Mr. Paxton in three of the most recent polls. His spokesman said the incumbent has raised far more campaign cash than Mr. Paxton because GOP donors and voters are “deeply uncomfortable” with Mr. Paxton’s political baggage.
The race, the spokesman said, “is competitive,” and Mr. Cornyn “has a plan to win.”
Mr. Cornyn, 74, is a longtime Senate GOP leader who has helped negotiate and pass a long list of legislation, sometimes after negotiating with Democrats.
Mr. Paxton touts his record as a hardline conservative who battled the Biden administration with more than 100 lawsuits against his policies and said he’ll fight to advance Mr. Trump’s agenda in the Senate and “take a sledgehammer to the D.C. establishment.”
He accused Mr. Cornyn at a recent campaign stop of failing to achieve anything of significance during his 23-year tenure in Congress.
“Can you name one great accomplishment of John Cornyn?” Mr. Paxton asked supporters in Allen, Texas. “Can anybody? I’ve never had anybody give an answer to that.”
Mr. Paxton said, “No one should run for a fifth term.”
Mr. Hunt, a 44-year-old Army combat veteran who is serving his second term in Congress, said both Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Paxton are career politicians who should step aside.
Mr. Trump could easily tip the race by endorsing one of the three GOP candidates. He signaled to reporters he might weigh in at some point.
“I like all three of them, actually. Those are the toughest races. They’ve all supported me. They’re all good. You’re supposed to pick one, so we’ll see what happens. But I support all three,” he said.
— Jeff Murdock contributed to this report.
