Until now, the conventional wisdom on the midterm elections has been cautionary — for Republicans. The party holding the White House generally loses ground anyway. The dramatic shifts in policy under Donald Trump would likely make voters skittish, analysts warned, and a lackluster economic environment provided even more reason for pessimism. And for a while, polls showed a grim picture for the GOP in next year’s contests.
Well, hold the phone. Polls have shifted over the last six months, CNN forecaster Harry Enten warns — or more to the point, the polls haven’t shifted at all. Democrats haven’t picked up any new support during Trump’s presidency, falling off the pace of their last midterm win in 2018. And polls aren’t their only problem either:
Democrats’ chance of taking the House in 2026 have plummeted, while GOP chances have skyrocketed over the last 6 months…
Why?
1. Dems aren’t keeping up with the pace they set in 2017 on the generic ballot.
2. GOP may be looking at big gains from mid-decade redistricting. pic.twitter.com/iauGwkTmp2
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 15, 2025
“You look back in 2017, you saw that the Democrats had leaped up to an eight-point advantage. I remember covering this. I remember a lot of folks, including myself saying, you know what? Republicans look pretty decent right now, in terms of the fact that they had the House, they had the Senate, they had the presidency, but things were likely going to flip,” he added. “And I was looking for the same signs this year. The bottom line is, it hasn’t happened, Kate Bolduan, it hasn’t happened. Democrats have stayed basically steady, they have fallen off the pace.” …
“If both sides max out, we’re probably looking at a GOP gain of plus seven House seats,” he said, noting that statistic does not factor the Supreme Court’s present consideration of the Voting Rights Act, which could end the use of race to draw congressional districts.
“If you add that in, then you could be looking about adding 10, 12, 15, 17 on top of this seven seats … It’s a different new landscape,” Enten said. “And we’re not quite sure how much Democrats will have to be ahead in the national House vote in order to gain control.”
The VRA challenge at the Supreme Court seems unlikely to be a factor in next year’s midterms. I would not expect that decision to get published any time soon; given the circumstances, the court may debate this one for the entire term, with no decision forthcoming until June 2026. That wouldn’t be enough time to redistrict in the states where such a decision would have the greatest impact, as the primary cycle would likely already be completed or nearly so. Even a January or February decision would likely not change any maps until 2028.
However, the redistricting that has already taken place clearly favors the GOP in 2026. If SCOTUS strikes down the VRA provisions that force mapping for racial balancing, it would help prevent any challenges to these new maps. To that extent, a favorable ruling could protect the new seats created by state legislatures (as in Texas), but probably wouldn’t come in time to create more new seats in time. (John wrote about the VRA oral arguments earlier.)
However, the polling situation may be worse for Democrats than Enten recognizes. His data shows Dems up three points in the generic ballot, but Real Clear Polling shows the average gap a little closer, at 1.9 points as of this afternoon. That’s closer than it was two months ago, when Dems had a 3.9-point average advantage. Less than a month ago, it was still at 3.6 points. In essence, Republicans have cut that lead in half, although the graph of the results suggests that Democrats have lost support over the last two weeks, falling from 46.1% to 45.0%. The GOP has maintained its support at or around 43% the entire time.
Gee, what’s been going on for the last two weeks? The Schumer Shutdown, maybe?
These numbers are still tight, and the changes statistically narrow. However, Democrats clearly aren’t moving the needle with this shutdown, and are actually trending in the wrong direction. Also, Democrats really need dramatic gaps to appear, as Enten explains, and there is no reason to expect that to happen in this environment. Almost all of this data precedes the release of the hostages, too, so we can expect to see some sort of leadership bump from his success in Gaza. Schumer’s leading his party into a box canyon, and they are about to get trapped with no easy exit except surrender.
Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.
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