A 1,300-pound NASA spacecraft is expected to fall back to Earth on Tuesday evening, but officials say there is little reason for concern.
Van Allen Probe A, launched in August 2012, is projected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around 7:45 p.m. EDT, according to NASA, which cited tracking by the U.S. Space Force. That estimate carries a 24-hour window of uncertainty.
NASA says most of the probe will burn up as it streaks through the atmosphere, though some fragments are expected to make it to the surface. The odds of anyone on Earth being struck by debris are approximately 1 in 4,200 — a risk the agency characterized as low.
The probe was one of two twin spacecraft, the other being Van Allen Probe B, sent up together to study the Van Allen belts, a pair of doughnut-shaped zones surrounding Earth where high-energy particles become trapped by the planet’s magnetic field. Those belts act as a natural shield, protecting Earth from harmful cosmic radiation, solar storms and the constant flow of charged particles streaming from the sun.
Originally designed for a two-year mission, the probes far outlasted expectations, operating for nearly seven years and setting records for how long a spacecraft had ever functioned in that radiation-heavy region of space. NASA ended the mission in 2019 after both probes ran out of fuel and could no longer maintain their orientation toward the sun.
During their years of operation, the probes made significant findings, including the first confirmed evidence of a temporary third radiation belt that can appear during periods of intense solar activity. Their data has since been cited in hundreds of scientific publications and continues to help researchers better understand how solar events can affect satellites, GPS systems, communications networks and power grids on Earth.
When the mission wrapped up, scientists projected the probe wouldn’t fall back to Earth until 2034. But the sun has been more active than anticipated in recent years, reaching its solar maximum in 2024, and the resulting space weather increased drag on the spacecraft, pulling it out of orbit faster than expected.
Van Allen Probe B, the surviving twin, is not expected to re-enter the atmosphere until the 2030s.
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