Political pros say Kari Lake is a generational political talent — but faces a series of self-inflicted challenges as she looks to broaden her appeal and soften her image in the race for Arizona’s open U.S. Senate seat.
Ms. Lake has flip-flopped on her state’s 1864 abortion law, caved in a defamation lawsuit about her 2022 stolen election claims and bungled a rapprochement with the late Sen. John McCain’s family.
Born in the MAGA movement, the former television newscaster and failed gubernatorial candidate has angled to strengthen her support in a state sliding more toward Democrats.
“She is the best retail politician in Arizona since Sheriff Joe Arpaio, and it is just confounding to some people that she cannot demonstrate another gear with the talent that she has,” said Jason Rose, an Arizona-based GOP strategist. “It would be like a great major league baseball player who can throw 100 miles an hour, only throwing 100 miles an hour. You need some other pitches, you need some diversity.”
The Arizona race crystalized last month after Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, the Democrat-turned-independent, said she would forgo reelection.
Ms. Lake has the inside track on the GOP’s nomination. Former President Donald Trump endorsed her the day she launched her bid, describing the married mother of two as a “fighter” with a “great heart.”
She also has the support of Steve Daines, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who said Ms. Lake is “one of the most talented candidates in the country.”
Her likely Democratic opponent is Rep. Ruben Gallego, who made his bones in his party’s liberal wing and is undertaking his own rebranding by adopting a more moderate style.
Mr. Gallego raised $7.5 million over the year’s first quarter and has $9.6 million cash on hand. Ms. Lake raised $4.1 million and had $2.5 million in the bank.
The state is one of a half-dozen Senate seats the GOP is eyeing as potential pickups.
A Hill/Emerson College poll, the only poll on the race since Ms. Sinema dropped out, shows a tight race with Mr. Gallego slightly ahead of Ms. Lake 51-49%, which is within the 3-point margin of error.
Mr. Rose said Ms. Lake got off to a good start by launching her bid with a Hillary Clinton-like listening tour, but later returned to Trump-style habits.
A recent survey from Noble Predictive Insights showed over a quarter of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Ms. Lake.
“She is going to test the theory of whether a zebra can change its stripes,” said Kirk Adams, who served as chief of staff to former Gov. Doug Ducey and speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives.
Ms. Lake lost the governor’s race in 2022 by about 17,000 votes out of more than 2.5 million cast. She insisted the election was stolen by fraud and shady election officials, including Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, a Republican.
Mr. Richer responded with a defamation lawsuit and Ms. Lake waved the white flag last month, accepting liability. She said the lawsuit had become a distraction but Mr. Richer said it was a devastating black eye.
“It was always a lie,” Mr. Richer said on social media.
Earlier, Ms. Lake botched an attempt to patch up things with the McCain family. McCain’s daughter was not having it, replying online: “NO PEACE B——!”
“What makes it especially difficult for her is that she not only promoted election conspiracy theories, but she made it very personal by telling McCain voters not to vote for her, telling Republicans that didn’t agree with her on every tenet of MAGAism that they were un-American,” Mr. Adams said. “That type of scorched-earth approach that she has built around her brand, it’s very difficult to peel that back now.”
The Lake campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Most recently Ms. Lake struggled to define her position on abortion. She had previously pronounced herself “thrilled” with an 1864 law — enacted before Arizona was a state — prohibiting most abortions. She called it trailblazing and predicted other states would follow.
But after the state Supreme Court ruled this month that the law is enforceable Ms. Lake changed her tune, calling it “out of line with where the people of this state are.”
“The issue is less about banning abortion and more about saving babies,” she said. “I agree with President Trump we must have exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.”