Tensions were running high in the Middle East this weekend when a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and other officials went missing in the mountains while returning from a diplomatic trip to Azerbaijan. An initial search for the helicopter was called off due to inclement weather, but it was located early this morning. Raisi, the Foreign Minister, and all of the other passengers and crew were dead when they were discovered. Early speculation as to whether or not someone might have shot down the chopper has seemingly been put to rest and the crash was caused by bad weather and poor visibility. (NY Post)
Iran’s hardliner President Ebrahim Raisi was killed after a helicopter carrying the reviled leader known as the “Butcher of Tehran” crashed in a remote region of the country Sunday, state media reported.
Raisi, 63, his foreign minister and other passengers were found dead after the rescuers discovered the helicopter crash site early Monday morning.
State news agency, Mehr, reported “all passengers of the helicopter carrying the Iranian president and foreign minister were martyred.”
A senior Iranian official also told Reuters that Raisi was killed in the wreck after state media reported Monday morning there was “no sign of life” at the crash site.
Iran would no doubt have liked to find a way to blame this on Israel, the United States, or both, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. The Weather Channel aired an interview with a chopper pilot who described flying in that region. The mountains rise up fast and when a storm moves in the visibility can drop to nearly zero. The flight probably should have been delayed, but it’s too late now for the Butcher of Tehran and the eight others onboard.
So how much of an impact will this have on the situation in Iran? Most foreign policy analysts thus far seem to believe the impact will be minimal. If anything, this will simplify the contest to determine who will succeed 85-year-old Supreme Leader Imam Sayyid Ali Khamenei. For the time being, First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will step up and assume the role of President for fifty days until an election can be held. But when Khamenei’s time is up, the battle to be his successor had been seen as being between Raisi and Khamenei’s son Mojtaba. This air traffic failure will likely clear the path for Mojtaba.
Of course, it doesn’t really matter who the President is because the Supreme Leader holds all of the power. And there likely won’t be any significant policy changes coming when the new Supreme Leader takes charge because all of these men share the same radical Islamic ideals and goals. None of them are seeking a better relationship with Israel and their only interest in the United States revolves around how much money they can get from us.
The domestic political situation is similarly unlikely to change very much according to analysts that the Post spoke to. Keep in mind that Raisi oversaw a brutal crackdown on his own people following the riots that broke out in response to the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police. Neither Mokhber nor Khamenei’s son have more of a Westernized streak in them than Raisi did and they have no interest in loosening up the country’s strict Muslim dress and social codes. So while the initial news of the helicopter crash generated some shockwaves in the international political scene, we will probably be dealing with the same situation going forward, with only a few of the faces and names having changed.