Dead man walking, or dead man deading? In the long run, there may not be a difference. There may not be a difference in the short run, either.
Iranian media reported within the hour that the mullahs in the Assembly of Experts voted to replace Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader with his son, Mojtaba. That succession plan had been rumored well before the current war broke out and took out Khamenei pere. However, there may be a hole or two in this succession plan now … and in the vote itself:
#BREAKING Iran’s Assembly of Experts elected Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba as the next leader under pressure from the Revolutionary Guards, informed sources told Iran International.https://t.co/1kNzoCcJPW pic.twitter.com/Tf6HfZMz88
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) March 3, 2026
First off, Mojtaba had been rumored dead since the first hours of the war. Unlike with Ali, though, Iranian media had never confirmed his death. Had he died in that strike on the ayatollah’s palace along with 50 or so others, regime media outlets would likely have reported it as yet another martyrdom for Allah’s favorite losers. It’s possible that the media either held back because of the morale damage that such an admission would create, or maybe just that the IRGC didn’t tell them about it.
It’s worth noting that Mojtaba hasn’t been seen since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, even though a television appearance would have been a good way to shore up confidence in the theocratic regime.
Second: We have not heard anything about the strike on the Qom headquarters for the Assembly of Experts this morning. Intelligence officials whispered to media outlets that the strike came when ballots were being counted. That also has not yet been verified, but again, we also haven’t heard anything from the 88 mullahs that comprise that council either. Again, if they survived that strike, one would think that the regime would recognize the importance of creating a contemporaneous proof-of-life statement for the continuity of the regime. Maybe the IRGC is just that amateurish, but even they might understand that the silence can breed revolt. The Nazis understood that much after the July 1944 plot to kill Hitler, and got to the radio stations before von Stauffenberg’s allies thought to take conytrole of it. That kept the coup from succeeding, which it might have done even with Hitler surviving the bombing.
In other words, there is a substantial chance that this is nothing more than a propaganda attempt by the IRGC to convince Iranian forces outside of Tehran and Qom that the regime is still operational. This may be a dead man getting elected by dead clerics inside the imagination of the IRGC’s Baghdad Bob wing.
[more to come]
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