As the balkanization of the United States continues apace, it is clear that the Left has no intention of letting red states stay red. According to Jason Snead, Executive Director of the Honest Elections Project, a combination of ballot measures and lawfare funded by left-wing dark money organizations is evolving into a consistent strategy in red and purple states. The combination of efforts successfully turned Michigan blue in three election cycles.
Arabella Advisors is a “massive progressive dark-money group,” according to The Atlantic. It directly manages four non-profit organizations: the 1630 Fund (1630), the New Venture Fund, the Hopewell Fund, and the Windward Fund. In 2020, these organizations raked in nearly $1.7 billion and spent almost $1.3 billion on progressive candidates and causes.
Since 2017, 1630 has spent nearly $79 million on ballot measures in 18 states. 1630’s preferred position won 29 out of 33 contests. Snead asserts, “The 1630 Fund views ballot measure campaigns as a mechanism to drive turnout for competitive races and win on issues that provide a systemic advantage for the Left.” In 2022, 1630 spent just over $17 million supporting two ballot initiatives in Michigan.
Proposal 3 enshrined unfettered access to abortion in the state constitution and juiced liberal turnout in the wake of the overturn of Roe v. Wade. Proposal 2 changed election laws in several ways. It codified ballot drop boxes, the right to request an absentee ballot, same-day and online voter registration, a nine-day early voting period, and funding schemes like Zuck Bucks for local election offices in the state constitution.
Snead pointed out that while Michigan poll workers can ask voters for photo ID at the polls, voters can refuse and sign an affidavit in place of proper identification. A 2018 ballot measure created an independent redistricting commission, taking the process out of the hands of the Republican-controlled state legislature. It is no surprise that 1630 was the top funder supporting that measure.
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Since 1992, Michigan Republicans have held a trifecta, defined as holding the governorship and both houses of the legislature, 14 times. Democrats’ only trifecta followed the 2022 election when the abortion ballot measure juiced liberal turnout. The Secretary of State and Attorney General are also Democrats.
“The ballot measure process was the final push to turn Michigan blue,” Snead summarized. “They fundamentally changed elections and redistricting to institutionalize a left-wing advantage. What we are seeing now is the beginning of the same process in Ohio.” And they are attempting to combine the measures that flipped Michigan into a single cycle.
In 2023, 1630 spent over $8 million codifying abortion rights in the Ohio constitution. It spent another $5 million opposing the measure to raise the threshold to approve a constitutional amendment from a majority to 60%. They won both fights. Now, ballot measures to change election laws, take the redistricting process out of the Republican-controlled legislature, and raise the minimum wage are all in various stages of landing on the 2024 ballot.
All required parties have certified the Ohio Minimum Wage Increase Initiative, and the Raise the Wage Coalition has started collecting signatures. Snead believes this measure will juice the union vote to save Sherrod Brown’s Senate seat. He predicts that thanks to union activism, we may see split tickets that include a yes on this measure, a vote for Brown, and one for Trump.
The Ohio Ballot Board has also certified a ballot measure to amend the state constitution by establishing a citizen-led redistricting commission. The sponsors, Citizens Not Politicians, must collect 413,487 signatures by July 3rd. The group’s website is entirely opaque, with no listing of its leaders or finances. The fundraising link goes to the Action Network, a platform used to raise funds for the Women’s March, March for Our Lives, Democrat Socialists of America, and the Communist Party USA. It is only available to progressive activists.
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According to Spectrum News, a third proposed ballot measure, the Ohio Voter Bill of Rights, seeks to undo election security measures:
The Ohio Voters Bill of Rights would enshrine in the state constitution the right for all Ohioans to vote safely and securely and require automatic voter registration, same-day voter registration, and expanded early voting options and locations.
The push for election law changes follows Ohio’s enactment last year of a host of election law changes, including tougher photo ID requirements and shortened windows after Election Day for returning and curing ballots.
Attorney General David Yost’s office is holding up the sponsor’s petition. He rejected the measure, asserting that the title does not accurately represent the proposal’s contents. It is the only one of the three measures facing serious obstacles to inclusion on the 2024 ballot.
Lawyers under the umbrella of Democracy Docket have filed suit against Yost. Two of them work for former DNC lawyer Marc Elias at the Elias Law Firm. Elias is also the founder of Democracy Docket LLC and Democracy Docket Legal Fund. The latter funds election-related lawsuits and is a project of the Hopewell Fund, a sister organization to 1630 under Arabella Advisors management. And it is certain that 1630 will be in the mix advancing all three ballot measures.
Progressives have found an effective vehicle for circumventing red-state trifectas where they have no political power. Meanwhile, RNC leadership is in disarray and without a plan to meaningfully address and prevent election irregularities in November 2024. And the Michigan GOP has been marginalized by the same strategy now aimed at Ohio. Without a robust counter strategy, the Left is going to continue to turn red states blue.