Phase 2? Phase 1 hasn’t finished yet. Perhaps Donald Trump hopes Santa will drop a Hamas disarmament down the chimney in twenty days.
Better have the Secret Service inspect it first, just to be on the safe side.
Axios’ Barak Ravid reports this morning that Trump wants to muscle forward on his Gaza peace plan by shifting into the next phase. However, as Ravid also points out, that presumes two prerequisites – one of which is still not quite complete, and the other which Hamas flat refuses to do:
President Trump plans to announce before Christmas that the Gaza peace process is moving into its second phase and to unveil the new governance structure for the enclave, according to two U.S. officials and a Western source directly involved in the process. …
State of play: While the ceasefire has not broken down entirely, Israeli strikes have killed 366 Palestinians and Hamas attacks have killed several Israeli soldiers since it came into force on Oct. 11.
Ahem. A ceasefire that produces an increasing body count can accurately be described as “breaking down.” It’s not just the continued warfare that is at issue, either. As Ravid mentions, Hamas has yet to fulfill its obligations to return all the bodies of the hostages they murdered on or after the October 7, 2023 massacres. Trump’s plan called for Hamas to return those bodies within 72 hours of the cease-fire that began nearly two months ago. They have lied about the location of those remains, and at other times have transmitted other remains in place of the hostages, all as part of their psychological warfare against Israel and the hostage families in particular.
The biggest obstacle, however, is disarmament. Trump wants to get his “Board of Peace” in place led by Tony Blair and supported by armed police forces that Sunni Arab nations will constitute for that purpose. However, those same Sunni Arab nations have made it clear that they will not send troops into Gaza to disarm Hamas, and that they won’t send forces at all while Hamas is still holding onto its arms. Until now, Hamas has not just refused to disarn but have acted to bolster its control over the enclave, at least where the IDF does not occupy it. Yesterday, Hamas assassinated a leader of a rival Palestinian faction that wants Hamas to leave Gaza:
The head of an armed Palestinian faction that opposes Hamas in Gaza has been killed, Israeli media reported on Thursday, in what would be a blow to Israeli efforts to support clans in Gaza against the Islamist movement.
Yasser Abu Shabab, a Bedouin tribal leader based in Israeli-held Rafah in southern Gaza, has led the most prominent of several small anti-Hamas groups that emerged in Gaza during the war that began more than two years ago.
His death would be a boost to Hamas, which has branded him a collaborator and ordered its fighters to kill or capture him.
So yes, it’s difficult to credit Hamas with any good faith in its initial agreement to disarm under the terms of this ceasefire. Given their continued terrorist actions throughout the last several weeks, it’s clear that they traded the hostages for some breathing space to reorganize and then return to the war that nearly destroyed Gaza after October 7.
This is why the nations that will supply the “international stabilization force” (ISG) envisioned for Phase 2 are outright balking at the prospect of Phase 2 while Hamas remains armed:
Pakistan has said that while it is ready to contribute to a possible international stabilisation force in Gaza, it is “not ready” to disarm Palestinian resistance group Hamas.
“If the purpose of deploying an international stabilisation force in Palestine is to disarm Hamas, then we are not ready for that; that’s not our job,” Ishaq Dar, the deputy premier and foreign minister, told reporters in Islamabad, adding:
“That is the job of Palestinian law enforcement agencies.”
If Trump wants to move to Phase 2 before Christmas, then the only path for that would be to have Israel finish the job. Ravid reports that Trump has ramped up diplomatic pressure to get the ISF nations to step into the breach anyway, but Benjamin Netanyahu remains skeptical:
Behind the scenes: The sources say the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and Turkey are negotiating with Hamas on an agreement under which the group would step back from governing Gaza and begin a process of disarming.
- Under the proposal, Hamas would first lay down its heavy weapons and then start the process of decommissioning its light weapons.
- The Western source involved in the talks said Egypt and Qatar are optimistic they’ll reach an agreement with Hamas, but Netanyahu is not. “Bibi is skeptical but committed to give it a chance to work,” the source said, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname.
The assassination of Abu Shabab looks like an answer to these negotiations. If Hamas were willing to disarm and withdraw, it wouldn’t have needed to assassinate its rivals. Hamas wants power and control of Gaza to keep using it as a platform for a war of annihilation against Israel. Netanyahu is right to be skeptical, and Trump should listen to Bibi rather than Blair in this instance. Even if that makes Trump the Grinch this Christmas.
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