Gov. Gavin Newsom of California is the odds-on favorite to win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination following a series of public clashes with President Trump over his immigration enforcement efforts.
Paul Krishnamurty, a trader at BetOnline.ag, said his latest handicapping of the coming contest shows Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as Mr. Newsom’s stiffest competition, followed by Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.
“It’s very early days, and the market is wide open,” Mr. Krishnamurty said. Newsom is the favorite because he seems very likely to run, and he is adept at using his big media profile while positioning himself against Trump and the GOP.”
Eight months removed from the 2024 election, pollsters and oddsmakers are starting to gauge the electorate’s sentiment on how voters are thinking, more than 1,220 days before the 2028 election.
Different pictures are emerging.
An Emerson College survey released last week showed that former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg has been gaining momentum.
Mr. Buttigieg, the surprise story of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, has jumped to the front of the pack of possible contenders, leapfrogging over former Vice President Kamala Harris, who is keeping her options open and also flirting with a run for California governor despite reports that donors are not thrilled about the idea.
Mr. Buttigieg was the top choice of 16% of primary voters. Ms. Harris received 13%, Mr. Newsom 12%, and Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and Mr. Shapiro were tied at 7%.
Mr. Buttigieg’s support was most substantial among voters over the age of 50 and White voters.
It also pointed to an early — yet familiar — warning sign for him. The poll showed he lacked any support from Black voters, the same slice of the electorate that helped derail his chances in the 2020 primary.
Sorting through the list of possible presidential contenders is a favorite quadrennial pastime of political junkies across the country.
Democrats and Republicans are keeping a close eye on the early jockeying to lead their respective parties into the next election.
The Democratic Party is still recovering from Mr. Trump’s commanding victory in the fall election, where working-class voters sent a clear message up and down the ballot, relegating them to the sidelines in the House and Senate.
The Trump-led Republicans, meanwhile, are looking to take advantage of calling the shots in Washington and are pushing for stronger border security and tax cuts.
The next major round of votes will take place in November, when voters in Virginia and New Jersey head to the polls to elect new governors and cast their ballots in state legislative races.
Democrats hope a strong showing could help energize their party for the midterm elections and then the opportunity to elect a new president two years later.
However, the 2026 map is unfavorable to Democrats, and 2028 remains foremost in the minds of the party as it struggles to find its footing without a clear leader.
Mr. Krishnamurty said Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, an understudy to Sen. Bernie Sanders, a three-time presidential contender and far-left heartthrob, has been the “big market mover.”
But Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s odds slipped after Zohran Mamdani’s dominant performance in New York’s Democratic mayoral primary sent shockwaves through the party, reviving lingering concerns about the party’s leftward drift.
Meanwhile, Mr. Krishnamurty said Ms. Harris, the party’s 2024 nominee, is duking it out with Mr. Buttigieg and Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois for the fourth spot.
And Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan is nipping at their heels.
The list of early prospects includes Govs. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Wes Moore of Maryland and Tim Walz of Minnesota, who received mixed reviews as the party’s 2024 vice presidential nominees.
Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Cory Booker of New Jersey, and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, as well as former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, could also be in the mix.
The GOP nomination, at the moment, appears to be Vice President J.D. Vance’s to lose.
The Emerson survey found 46% of Republican primary voters preferred Mr. Vance, followed by 12% for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, 9% for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and 5% for Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Mr. Vance’s frontrunner status was on display this week after several of the possible 2028 contenders bashed his tie-breaking Senate vote for Mr. Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”
“Bookmark this,” Mr. Newsom said on X. “J.D. Vance is the ultimate reason why 17 million Americans will lose their healthcare.”
Ms. Ocasio-Cortez said the Vance vote was an “absolute and utter betrayal of working families,” and Mr. Buttigieg said the vice president was stripping away health care and food assistance, while blowing up the deficit and doling out tax breaks for the wealthiest.
