Russia’s war against Ukraine, now in its third year, has contributed to a significant shift in Moscow’s relationship with the countries of the former Soviet Union that now are moving to reduce their dependence on the Kremlin, British officials said Wednesday.
Russia “almost certainly” still considers maintaining influence on the former Soviet republics to be a foreign policy priority and critical to its own domestic security and economic prosperity, U.K. military intelligence officials said on X in their latest assessment of the fighting in Ukraine.
“While there are variations between countries, Russia’s overall influence [over] its near neighbors has declined,” U.K. officials said. “The resources Russia has committed in Ukraine and its failure to achieve a military breakthrough have called into question Russia’s traditional position as a regional security guarantor.”
The decline in the Russian economy and the risk of further sanctions from the West over the Ukraine invasion have intensified concerns among former Soviet republics that they may be too financially dependent on Moscow, U.K. officials said.
“States across the former Soviet Union have intensified efforts to diversify their economic, political, and security relationships to reduce their dependence on Russia,” British officials said. “The Kremlin’s ability to achieve its aims and objectives has almost certainly declined significantly over the past two years.”