The popular opinion among many on both sides of the aisle about why the 2022 red wave turned into a red trickle is that the overturning of Roe vs. Wade ruined it for the Republicans. To the surprise of no one who’s been reading me for a while, I don’t agree with the popular opinion.
It was 40 years ago this spring that I first volunteered on a Republican campaign. I’ve seen a few elections. I cannot stress enough how one should never underestimate the ability of the GOP to blow an election simply because the party doesn’t execute the fundamentals well.
Yes, I think that abortion played a role in 2022, but not as big of a one as most do. To the extent that it did, I blame Republican candidates’ perennial inability to avoid rhetorical traps on the campaign trail. I do not, however, believe that there was a seismic shift in the female Republican electorate because of the Dobbs decision. No one has been able to convince me that, amid all of the inflation and woke takeover of schools tumult, suburban moms bailed on the GOP because they might want to get an abortion one day.
Paying no attention whatsoever to the opinions of Stephen Kruiser, the Democrats want to lead with abortion in any 2024 campaign tussles.
“I absolutely think reproductive freedom is still front and center,” said Rep. Hillary J. Scholten (D), who represents Grand Rapids and flipped her battleground seat in 2022 amid backlash to a statewide abortion ban eventually overridden by popular vote.
Democrats and Republicans are battling over the basic terrain that 2024 will be fought on and trying to push their strongest issue to the forefront. Trump is capitalizing on dismal approval ratings for Biden’s handling of the southern border, while Democrats are hammering the issue Trump hardly talks about — hoping to re-create their success in so many elections since a trio of Trump-appointed justices on the Supreme Court helped overturn Roe.
Of course they have to go with that. What else are they going to do, run on Biden’s record? Even Joe Biden is going to have to distance himself from Joe Biden in this election. On the issues, the only thing that Democrats have is trying to frighten impressionable female voters into thinking that it will be full “The Handmaid’s Tale” if Republicans are in charge of anything.
Because they’re dumb enough to keep going in front of hostile media, Republican candidates are going to be overwhelmed with abortion questions. The first thing they’ll need to do is learn the power of dismissive rejection. Remind the questioner that it’s “abortion,” and not “reproductive freedom,” or “women’s health.”
Then start talking about the border nightmare and don’t stop talking about it.
Because Joe Biden and his handlers are so bad at their jobs, the border woes that we’ve always experienced here in the border states have, um, migrated all over the country. It’s a sore spot everywhere.
The main reason that the Democrats so fear Trump this year is because they know that he’s the one Republican who gets it. He’s not going to stop talking about Biden and the border. It was a huge part of his appeal and success in 2016 even before every state was giving hotel rooms, apartments, and debit cards to illegal aliens.
The down ballot Republicans need to take a cue from the guy at the top.
I won’t go into the GOP’s historical messaging malfunctions anymore in this column. I should probably be writing a book about that. The talking points blueprint for this election is pretty simple.
The border. The border. The border. The border and, oh yeah, the border.
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