The Maryland Democratic Senate primary between Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone is a jump ball.
An Emerson College/The Hill/DC News Now survey released Thursday — the last day of early voting in the contest — found 42% of voters support Ms. Alsobrooks and 41% support Mr. Trone, with the remaining 12% of voters still up for grabs.
That is a good sign for Ms. Alsobrooks, who is seeking to make history as the state’s first Black female senator.
Mr. Trone has led several prior polls and funneled a staggering $54 million of his personal fortune into his campaign, allowing him to blanket the television airwaves with ads in recent weeks. But the blitz has not stopped a surge for his rival, the pollster said.
“Since the February Maryland poll, Alsobrooks’ support increased 25 points, from 17% to 42%, and Trone’s nine points, from 32% to 41%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release. “Among those who already voted, Trone leads 51% to 45%, while those who are likely but have not yet voted break for Alsobrooks, 41% to 37%.”
Early voting began on May 2. The primary election day is Tuesday.
Ms. Alsobrooks leads Mr. Trone among women and Black voters, while Mr. Trone has the edge among men and white voters.
Democrats also will be pleased to see that former Gov. Larry Hogan, who is the clear favorite to win the Republican nomination, now trails both Ms. Alsbrooks and Mr. Trump by double-digits in hypothetical general election matchups. The popular former governor’s entry into the race instantly made it a potential GOP pickup in the fierce battle for control of the Senate in November.
Still, 14% of Maryland’s voters remain undecided over whom they will vote for in the general election.
The winner of the November election will succeed Sen. Ben Cardin, the three-term Democrat who passed on seeking reelection.
If Democrats lose the seat, the consensus is the party will have almost no chance of defending their slim Senate majority in the next Congress seated in 2025.
The poll found Mr. Hogan also has lost ground against both Democrats since the beginning of the year. Mr. Hogan is seeking to become the first Republican in over 40 years to hold a Senate seat in Maryland, where Democrats have a two-to-one advantage in voter registration over Republicans.
Ms. Alsobrooks has the support of many top state Democrats, including Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Chris Van Hollen and Rep. Jamie Raskin.