It’s not exactly a surprise: The threat posed by anti-satellite weapons has been steadily approaching, in plain view of everyone, for decades.
“Soviet ASAT capabilities threaten U.S. military capabilities to some extent now and potentially to a much greater extent in the future,” researchers with the congressional Office of Technology Assessment wrote in a report examining how the then-Soviet Union could use anti-satellite, or ASAT, weapons to wreak havoc on the American military, economy, financial system and society at large. The report was issued in 1985 — during President Reagan’s first term in office.
But as demonstrated by the near-panic that engulfed official Washington last week amid reports the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin may try to put a nuclear anti-satellite weapon in space, there is a growing fear in national security circles that a dangerous confluence of events is taking shape now. Public reliance on technology today means that such attacks would be far more devastating than ever before in human history. At the same time, America’s foes may have unprecedented motivation to employ them.
For Russia, the fundamental value of satellites during wartime has never been more obvious, as it pursues its troubled invasion of Ukraine.
Kyiv has relied heavily on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet over the past two years as traditional internet and communications networks were compromised. Starlink translated directly to Russian losses on the battlefield, and eliminating Ukraine’s access to such systems could be a motivating factor behind the Kremlin’s apparent decision to fast-track its anti-satellite program — despite the fierce outcry such a move would inevitably draw from the West.
The weapons in question range from traditional missiles targeting one or more satellites to the detonation of a nuclear bomb in space, which could create a massive electromagnetic pulse, or EMP. On the grandest scale, such ASAT weapons could be unspeakably devastating to the American public and to nations around the world. Cell phones would shut down, GPS systems wouldn’t function, banking access and other civilian applications to the satellite networks heavily relied upon by U.S. military personnel stationed around the world would be blocked.
Some national security insiders fear Mr. Putin could take such a radical step if eventually faced with certain defeat in Ukraine, or otherwise feels boxed in by the West. Mr. Putin denied those accusations this week, saying that Moscow remains “categorically opposed” to weapons in space.
But the danger doesn’t end with Russia. Specialists warn that communist China also has an eye on anti-satellite weapons as part of a much broader strategic plan. For example, Beijing could view a major EMP attack in space as a way to potentially neutralize its enemies ahead of a full-scale land invasion of Taiwan, the island democracy it has vowed one day to take over.
“It is very difficult to set off an EMP that would only affect Taiwan and not affect China. But you could set something off over the central Pacific or North America that would mostly affect the United States,” said Dean Cheng, senior adviser to the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace.
“And then there’s a military effect. What would happen to American military forces in Guam and elsewhere if they were exposed to an EMP attack?” Mr. Cheng said in an interview. “But, two, is the political effect. Would the threat of such a thing cause the United States to potentially not come to Taiwan’s aid? That is their bigger worry.”
Whether it’s Russia, China or any other actor, using such a doomsday weapon would send an unambiguous message: “We are prepared to crash global infrastructure, energy, finance, communications, shipping,” Mr. Cheng said.
Gauging the threat
ASAT weapons, and the fear Russia was considering a nuclear version of one, were unexpectedly thrust into the public spotlight last week. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner, Ohio Republican, publicly called on the Biden administration to declassify and disseminate information about what he said was a major new Russian threat. His comments touched off several days of speculation, leading the White House to eventually issue a statement contending that there was no imminent threat to national security.
“Though Russia’s pursuit of this particular capability is troubling, there is no immediate threat to anyone’s safety,” White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters. “We are not talking about a weapon that can be used to attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on Earth.”
Administration officials and some national security insiders privately were angry with Mr. Turner for taking the matter public. Such sensitive intelligence issues are typically discussed only behind closed doors.
Mr. Turner defended his actions and said that the House intelligence panel worked directly with the White House to notify Congress of the threat.
“The House Intelligence Committee voted 23 to 1 to make this information available to Members of Congress. White House officials confirmed that, in their view, the matter was ‘serious,’” Mr. Turner said on social media after other lawmakers criticized his public comments.
The flap emerged even as Moscow has been making advances on the ASAT front for years. In 2021, Russia conducted a “hit-to-kill” anti-ASAT test that destroyed one of its own satellites, smashing it into what the Pentagon described as “more than 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris.”
“The debris created by Russia’s [test] will continue to pose a threat to activities in outer space for years to come, putting satellites and space missions at risk, as well as forcing more collision-avoidance maneuvers. Space activities underpin our way of life and this kind of behavior is simply irresponsible,” U.S. Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander of U.S. Space Command, said immediately after that test.
Faced with new accusations this week, Mr. Putin denied that his country will place nuclear weapons in space.
“Our position is quite clear and transparent: We have always been and remain categorically opposed to the deployment of nuclear weapons in space,” Mr. Putin said during a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. “Just the opposite, we are urging everyone to adhere to all the agreements that exist in this sphere.”
Mr. Putin said that Russia has only developed space capabilities that “other nations, including the U.S. have.”
“And they know it,” he said.
Game-changers in space
Those denials will do little to calm fears in the U.S. The introduction of a nuclear weapon into space, analysts say, would be a game-changer.
“A kinetic attack from Earth on any single small satellite would be highly inefficient. But a nuclear attack presents a wider problem,” said Clementine Starling and Mark J. Massa, researchers with the Atlantic Council.
“A nuclear detonation in space would add significant radiation to orbits used by a number of U.S. military satellites, causing them to degrade in the weeks and months following the detonation unless they are specifically hardened against radiation,” they wrote in a recent analysis. “A so-called high-altitude nuclear detonation against low-Earth orbit satellites (HALEOS) would also damage thousands of civilian satellites from all nations, making this a true weapon of mass destruction.”
For Russia, such a step would mark the abandonment of numerous treaties with the U.S. dating back to the early years of the Cold War. The 1967 Outer Space Treaty, for example, explicitly says that “states shall not place nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit or on celestial bodies or station them in outer space in any other manner.”
Brushing aside that treaty, along with the host of others that prohibit weapons in space, could also lead to an immediate loss of whatever trust is left between the Kremlin and the Biden administration.
“The big point here is, if you start doing this, I have to assume that any satellite you put into space of a sufficiently large dimension might carry nuclear weapons on board,” said Mr. Cheng, the USIP analyst. “That puts everybody on a hair trigger.”
Mr. Cheng also pointed to other space capabilities wielded by Russia and China. In the summer of 2021, for example, China launched into space a hypersonic missile capable of carrying a nuclear payload, which circled the earth several times. The test caught Pentagon leaders by surprise.
“What we saw was a very significant event of a test of a hypersonic weapon system, and it is very concerning. I don’t know if it’s quite a Sputnik moment but I think it’s very close to that,” said then-Joints Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark A. Milley, referring to the Soviet Union’s historic 1957 satellite launch that sparked a space race between Moscow and Washington.