The combination of scarcity and urgency can make some NFL quarterbacks rich. Whether or not they deserve to be is a matter of opinion.
In a video posted Tuesday to the social media platform X, NFL insider Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report predicted that Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott will receive a gargantuan payday this offseason, despite his team once again falling short in the NFL playoffs.
“I believe Dak Prescott is gonna command somewhere along the lines of $60 million per year, potentially making him the highest-paid quarterback in football,” Schultz said.
Indeed, as Sports Illustrated observed, that kind of contract would eclipse the $55 million per year that the Cincinnati Bengals paid quarterback Joe Burrow in September.
According to Schultz, a number of circumstances will work in the 30-year-old Prescott’s favor.
“Considering how well Dak played for Dallas this year, considering the alternatives and the fact that [Cowboys owner] Jerry Jones really wants to win now, doesn’t want to have to start over at quarterback, and has a tremendous amount of respect for Dak Prescott, I believe that Dak Prescott is going to reset the quarterback market and get in the vicinity of $60 million this offseason,” Schultz explained.
Readers may view Schultz’s comments below. In an accompanying tweet, the NFL insider added that in 2025, the Cowboys will not have the option to keep Prescott by placing a franchise tag on him, which of course adds to the urgency of the present offseason.
Aside from his MVP caliber play this past year, #Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has put himself in tremendous position. Keep in mind he can’t be tagged next offseason.
🎥: @BleacherReport @brgridiron https://t.co/X7y4y2NWEv pic.twitter.com/c2tUqQaReM
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) February 20, 2024
On the whole, Prescott’s situation makes for a fascinating case.
Does he deserve the money?
First of all, NFL teams cannot simply hand out massive contracts with no repercussions. While front-office executives have mastered the art of creative accounting, each NFL team still must operate under a salary cap. According to NBC Sports, the still-unannounced 2024 cap could approach $250 million.
Thus, under that scenario, Prescott’s possible $60 million contract would account for 24 percent of the Cowboys’ overall cap. And they still have to field an entire team.
On the other hand, those aforementioned creative accounting techniques should allow the Cowboys to operate with some confidence. After all, according to the sports contract-tracking website Spotrac, Burrow will count less than $30 million against the Bengals’ 2024 cap.
So the Cowboys could pay Prescott. But should they?
For starters, anyone who had Prescott on their 2023 fantasy football team did pretty well. The Dallas quarterback led the NFL in both touchdown passes (36) and completions (410). He also finished second in AP MVP voting to Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Furthermore, in eight seasons as Dallas’ starting quarterback, Prescott has compiled a 73-41 record and made three Pro Bowls. The Cowboys have finished .500 or better in each season during which he started at least 12 games.
Alas, one giant albatross remains: Burrow’s Bengals, at least, made it all the way to Super Bowl LVI in Feb. 2022 before losing to the Los Angeles Rams. Despite making the playoffs five times, however, Prescott’s Cowboys have yet to advance beyond the NFL’s divisional round.
That history of postseason failure includes a 48-32 drubbing at the hands of the Green Bay Packers on Jan. 14.
One could argue, therefore, that Prescott has not earned the NFL’s richest contract based on his postseason record alone.
Still, Schultz almost certainly had it right.
For one thing, NFL-caliber quarterbacks do not grow on trees. Each season, many teams learn that lesson to their dismay. When you have one, you must keep him.
Secondly, the 81-year-old Jones knows that his Cowboys have a good roster and should rank among the league’s top teams again next year, so he understandably does not want to rebuild with a new quarterback.
Thirdly, the Cowboys’ comical record of playoff ineptitude actually dates to 1995 — the last time they won the Super Bowl and also the last time they advanced even to the NFC Championship Game. Prescott bears no blame for 21 of those 29 failures.
Finally, Schultz noted that Jones “has a tremendous amount of respect” for his quarterback. In 2022, Prescott won the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year award in recognition of his humanitarian work.
In short, the team’s playoff results suggest that Prescott might not merit the league’s richest contract. But other factors, from positional scarcity to personal quality, make it likely that he will receive that contract nonetheless.
