With a decision looming about whether she will seek re-election, independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona is keeping her decision under wraps.
When The Hill recently asked about the timing of any announcement, Sinema’s response was, “Oh my God, what a waste of a question.”
But the election calendar says an answer needs to come soon, according to Axios.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema confronts an approaching reelection deadline in Arizona amidst a competitive race, yet she has remained tight-lipped about her plans since switching parties from Democrat to independent in 2022. https://t.co/0D5nfUpR8z pic.twitter.com/WjZEPiT8yv
— The Hill (@thehill) February 13, 2024
To make the ballot, Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat but broke with the party in 2022, needs to file about 42,000 valid signatures from Arizona voters by April 1.
Consultant Meghan Cox said it is doable for a campaign to get that number of signatures if it begins in the next two weeks, but Sinema would need paid staff to gather somewhere in the range of 60,000 to 65,000 signatures.
But before that begins, Sinema would need to file an official statement of interest with the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office. That has not yet happened.
Sinema has about $10 million in campaign cash available, although her challengers — Republican front-runner Kari Lake and Democratic front-runner Rep. Ruben Gallego — have recently outpaced her in raising cash, according to the Arizona Republic.
Will Sinema retire?
Then there is the question of actually winning a three-way race as an independent. Axios said no independent in Arizona has ever won a state or federal race in the state even though 34 percent of the voters are registered as independents.
“I have recently decided she’s probably not running because there are things a person would do if you were really going to be running, even [an] unorthodox campaign like an independent U.S. senator,” Stan Barnes, a former Republican state senator and GOP consultant, told The Hill.
“But I mean, the door is just about to close, physically speaking,” he said.
“I think one of the reasons she’s … apparently not running is because you can’t find a poll that shows her doing well in that three-way race,” he said. “And regrettably, I think the most recent exercise with the border deal that ended up going nowhere has hurt her re-election stock in Arizona.”
Democratic strategist Matt Grodsky said that even if the border compromise she helped craft had passed, Sinema would remain on the outs with many Arizona Democrats.
“I think, to be polite, if that was a genuine thought she had, I think it just goes to show how out of touch she is with her party and its base,” Grodsky said.
“I mean, they have just not forgiven her for what they view as obstruction over the last few years and not passing things that were, in a lot of people’s views, like at our fingertips to pass,” he said.
Lake’s campaign said Sinema is toast.
“All the polling is clear: Kyrsten Sinema has zero path to victory,” Lake campaign representative Alex Nicoll said.
“She is nothing more than a fake independent who has voted with Joe Biden almost 100 percent of the time. Kyrsten spends more time on private jets than in Arizona. Kari Lake is the common sense candidate who will secure the border and get the economy back on track,” Nicoll said.
