A top Taiwanese technology expert with a front-row seat on the battle for online supremacy in the Pacific is warning that China is waging an increasingly effective and sophisticated information war to manipulate Americans online while many in the U.S. appear not to be taking the fight seriously.
Ethan Tu ditched a comfortable post as principal development manager at Microsoft in 2017 to build up his own Taiwan AI Labs, a privately funded research laboratory in Taipei. The fledgling firm finds itself at the forefront of new tech platforms using artificial intelligence models to catch and combat online foreign influence campaigns.
His platform has captured Washington’s attention. He says he thinks there is a chance its cyber alarm systems can help Taiwan forecast any forthcoming invasion from China, which has vowed to take over the island democracy it considers part of its sovereign territory. Right now, however, the Communist regime in Beijing has the initiative online, he says.
In the “information space,” Mr. Tu said in an interview, “China is pretty dominating,” detailing his lab’s work in a 227-slide presentation shown to The Washington Times.
The American response to China‘s rising challenge, by contrast, leaves a lot to be desired, both in the public and private spheres.
“United States is being naive, including the citizens and the government,” Mr. Tu said. “They are thinking the United States is strong. They are thinking the internet chaos is part of democracy, but no.”
Taiwan AI Labs built its “Infodemic” platform as a diagnostic tool for non-technical users to detect and understand cognitive warfare waged on social media and across the internet. The platform uses large language models, or powerful algorithms, to identify coordinated, nefarious behavior on Facebook, X, YouTube, TikTok, Taiwanese social platforms and other websites in real time.
Taiwan has emerged as a recent test case of offense and defense in cognitive warfare, having just held a hotly contested presidential election, which attracted intense interest from Beijing, Washington and actors around the world.
After Taiwan’s January election, Mr. Tu’s lab published a report documenting when and where digital armies had assembled online, what narratives they pushed, and the methods they used to avoid detection. For example, the lab uncovered legions of digital trolls disguised with AI-generated images, videos, and audio-sharing content on Facebook, all designed to sway public opinion against candidates and parties seen as hostile to Beijing.
The lab’s discovery of China’s digital disruption efforts could supply the template for Beijing’s game plan as the U.S. prepares for its own hotly contested presidential election in November.
For example, the lab spotted what it said was a major troll group on Facebook simultaneously slamming Taiwan in Mandarin Chinese and trashing the U.S. in English. The coordinated attack online increased in intensity last year after President Biden formally announced his intention to run for reelection.
Taiwan AI Labs’ work has caught the attention of Western experts, winning praise from Washington’s top China-watchers, including at the nonprofit Special Competitive Studies Project.
Chip Usher, who left the CIA last year after more than three decades and joined the nonprofit, lauded Mr. Tu’s work at an Intelligence and National Security Alliance event earlier this month.
Mr. Tu and Taiwan AI Labs “are doing some fantastic work in using AI to detect, characterize and enable the Taiwanese government to take action to defend against malicious disinformation campaigns that are appearing on social media websites,” Mr. Usher said at the event.
Mr. Tu is a fan of Mr. Usher’s Special Competitive Studies Project, chaired by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt. But the Taiwanese tech guru acknowledged he has soured on some of America’s other Big Tech companies. Mr. Tu told The Times he left Microsoft because of its business engagement with China and he believes many leading U.S. tech firms are solely motivated by profit without considering the country’s larger interests.
“Of course Microsoft [profits] from China, but I would say the commercial company … will not go against profit or go against any country because they want to present [that] they’re neutral,” Mr. Tu said.
Microsoft did not respond to a request for comment, but Mr. Tu’s dissatisfaction with the U.S. tech sector is broader than one company.
Many companies and executives in Silicon Valley, he said, are bent on not offending China, even as China seeks to spark domestic turmoil in Taiwan and sow discord in the U.S.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly told his armed forces to be prepared to be able to take control of Taiwan by 2027. Mr. Tu said he expected Beijing to adopt digital strategies similar to the ones used by Russia before it invaded Ukraine in 2022 and the tactics of anti-Israel forces ahead of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack before making a military move against Taipei.
Cybersecurity professionals say Ukraine has held up against Russia’s digital onslaught better than some tech experts initially expected. Mr. Tu believes his nation’s vigilance has left Taiwan better prepared than Ukraine to stare down its own giant neighbor across the Taiwan Strait.
“I would say Taiwan has more awareness,” Mr. Tu said.
But he warns that those who think that staying offline or avoiding certain social media sites will protect them from China‘s malicious digital influence campaigns need to reconsider.
He points to an example of Taiwanese consumers suddenly rushing to hoard eggs last year, jeopardizing food security for the island nation, as an example of the power of disinformation and strategically placed messages online. Taiwan AI Labs researchers found malicious cyber actors focused on an incident involving egg imports and churned out false content, causing people to panic and buy up eggs.
Surging egg prices and strained supplies ended up affecting both those online and offline.