Most Americans want the U.S. to engage more with allies and partners but have a growing doubt in the Pentagon’s capabilities to meet the challenges presented by China and other adversaries, a new national defense survey by the Ronald Reagan Institute shows.
The 2025 Reagan National Defense Survey found that 64% of Americans want the U.S. to be more engaged and take the lead internationally, a clear majority that cuts across political lines. Respondents said American military power is important, with 87% saying the U.S. needs to have “the most powerful military in the world.”
The survey, a major public opinion poll that has been conducted since 2018 for the Reagan Institute, showed agreement on critical defense and national security issues across a wide array of political views.
Of the more than 2,500 adults that responded, 91% were registered voters, with an even split between Republicans and Democrats. Independent voters made up less than a quarter of the respondents.
The survey found that most Americans are growing more alarmed about the global threats the U.S. faces and are increasingly willing to see leadership impact geopolitical discussions.
But only 45% of respondents said the military is strong enough to deter foreign aggression. That lack of confidence extends to the military’s ability to “win a war overseas,” with less than half saying the U.S. military is capable of winning.
The results come just before the Reagan National Defense Forum, an annual meeting at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in Simi Valley, California. The meeting brings together military leaders, defense industry executives and decision-makers from Congress and the Trump administration.
Revitalizing confidence in the U.S. military is one of the defense forum’s focus areas, with politicians from both sides of the aisle sitting with leadership from the Pentagon to discuss the results.
Sen. Jim Banks, Indiana Republican, and Rep. Jimmy Panetta, California Democrat, will be on a panel discussing “restoring confidence in the U.S. military.” They will be joined by Gen. Eric Smith, U.S. Marine Corps commandant, and Anthony Tata, under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness.
China, Russia, Iran and North Korea
But even with increasing doubt since 2021 that the U.S. military can win, there’s strong support for their use. The appetite for leadership to charge forward with intervention abroad is outstripping the confidence that the military has the capability to win if it is deployed.
There is a drastic uptick in support for U.S. military intervention to defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression. A majority of Americans, 60%, now support committing U.S. forces to Taiwan’s defense. It’s an increase from just 48% last year, as many in the survey see China as the biggest threat from a great power abroad.
On every metric, from officially recognizing Taiwan as an independent country to imposing economic sanctions against China because of aggression to Taiwan, Americans were increasingly supportive of the U.S. coming to Taiwan’s defense and aid.
The survey showed that 70% — an increase of 12 percentage points from last year — would support “moving U.S. military assets, such as aircraft carriers, into the region” to support Taiwan’s defense. Nearly every question on support for Taiwan rose roughly 10 points.
It comes as no surprise, then, that nearly half of Americans surveyed see China as the greatest perceived threat on the world stage, while just over a quarter of Americans see Russia as the top challenger. Iran and North Korea didn’t even break 5%.
The rising concern stems from a view that Beijing is increasing its military power, cyber capabilities inside U.S. infrastructure and global influence on raw materials markets.
China’s competition in industry and the impact it has on national security is also a panel topic for the Simi Valley event, specifically discussion around advanced artificial intelligence technology.
Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo, the current commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, will be joined by industry executives and Emil Michael, under secretary of defense for research and engineering, to discuss the issue.
While China may be seen as the largest threat, Russia had the strongest connection to being an enemy of the U.S., with answers consistently sitting around 80% since 2022. While Iran and North Korea are seen as less of a threat to the U.S., that doesn’t mean they’re just on the sidelines.
The majority of respondents said they’re worried about collusion between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as a possible threat. Half said they were extremely concerned about the increased cooperation between the countries, all of which were clearly seen as enemies of the U.S. by the public.
Some of that nexus is seen in the conflict in Ukraine, where North Korean troops supporting Russia have engaged in front-line warfare. Support for Ukraine — especially around supplying weapons and backing Kyiv to recover all of the Russian-occupied territory — climbed sharply.
The survey showed 64% support sending weapons to Ukraine, though the majority do want to see a shift of the financial burden for those weapons to European allies through some form of purchase program. That’s a 9-percentage-point increase in support for Ukraine from last year and a notable shift from Republican respondents. Those weapons include the majority supporting long-range strike capabilities like the Tomahawk cruise missile.
Only 28% of respondents said Russia could be trusted to honor any peace agreement, a critical number on public sentiment given the ongoing negotiations by the White House.
Americans do see U.S. involvement in an international peacekeeping force as a positive thing, with a majority saying it supports European troops being backed by U.S. air power to maintain a demilitarized zone. That feeling of support and connection to Europe especially extends to Poland and Finland. Both countries saw Americans, nearly three-quarters of those surveyed, considering them as allies.
Overall, the majority of respondents said the U.S. having the most powerful military in the world is an important aspect of geopolitics. While confidence in the military’s capability isn’t particularly strong, 80% of respondents said the military is still more powerful than other major countries. Most agreed that the world is more likely to be at peace when the U.S. maintains its status as a global hegemony and has the strongest military force, and they’re increasingly willing to see the U.S. spend to maintain that position.
The survey comes as much of the defense infrastructure reevaluates its approach to procurement and its strategy to counter both China and Russia.
