Politicians love to play the “expectations game” because there’s more ways to win. The expectations game goes like this: You set a near-impossible standard for failure — and then break out the confetti and champagne bottles, declaring “victory” when you surpass it.
That’s the storyline from the Democratic Party today. Sure, after sinking ungodly sums of money into the Tennessee congressional election, they lost by nine points, but they “over-performed.”
So… hooray!
Look no further than CNN’s post-election analysis:
Democrats have now over-performed by double digits in every special election for the House held in 2025. And this year’s special elections account for 5 of their 15 biggest over-performances (compared to their margin in the previous presidential race) since Trump first became president in 2017. That’s across more than three dozen special elections in that span.
Naturally, CNN (and the rest of the mainstream media) weren’t playing the expectations game during the Big Apple’s mayoral race, where Zohran Mamdani won by less than 9 points, grabbing 50.4% of the total vote in ultra-liberal New York City. Or any of the other 2025 elections in bright Blue States.
Nah. When Democrats win, they scrap the expectations game entirely: “Hey, a win is a win, dude!”
It’s the opposite of the expectations game. I call it the Bill Parcells standard: “You are what your record says you are.”
The Bill Parcells standard is absolute. If your record is 6-11, you’re not a really good, up-and-coming, highly talented football team that lost a few heartbreakers late in the season. Or a 9-win team that fell behind in the fourth quarter during the last three games.
You’re a 6-11 team. You are what your record says you are.
CNN’s rationalization was so extreme, they actually included this paragraph in their analysis:
(Even if Democrats had somehow won this district, there is very little chance they’d have held it even in a strong 2026 election for their side.)
Which is vintage expectations game and/or “sour grapes” rhetoric: Even when the Dems lose, they don’t really lose. (And even if they won, they wouldn’t have really won!) It’s the ultimate “heads I win, tails you lose” set-up.
Instead, over the next few days, we’re gonna hear an awful lot from the media/Democrats about lucky number 13.
Here’s NPR’s take:
In nearly 60 state legislative and Congressional special elections, Democrats have improved on their 2024 margins by an average of 13% and are coming off a string of high-profile victories in races up and down the ballot last month.
In Tennessee, Behn earning roughly 45% of the vote is a similar 13% shift in margins from how the district voted last November.
Is a 13-point shift relevant? Of course: We’re not gonna keep the House in 2026 if there’s a nationwide 13-point swing.
TN-07.
This is a 13+ point shift in a year.
Of course, special elections are not the same as midterms.
But.
Thread: here are current House Rs who won by 13 points or fewer in 2024.
— Lisa Desjardins (@LisaDNews) December 3, 2025
Check out the X thread (above): A 13-point swing would cost the GOP 35 House seats!
But in national politics, very few trendlines are permanent. Consistency is the exception, not the rule. Barring some sort of “tipping point” moment, everything is cyclical — and the 2026 midterms are still 11 months away.
That’s an eternity in politics.
Instead, opinion polls tend to rise and fall in accordance with economic news, current events, and abstract emotional sentiments. It’s far more probable that the 13-point threshold is a temporary, high-water mark for the Dems than a “new normal” in national politics.
After all, off-year elections are tailor-made for the out-of-power party. Whoever just lost the national election is almost always angrier — and far more motivated to vote — than the opposition.
It would’ve been weirder if the Dems didn’t “over-perform.” The fact that they had every single institutional advantage available and STILL lost by nine points is significant.
But we won’t hear too much about that from the mainstream media, will we?
And besides, one of Trump’s strengths is his uncanny ability to frame issues, rally the base, drive new Republicans to the voting booths, and nationalize elections. We’re talking about a guy who — virtually singlehandedly — forced a national realignment of the two parties.
That’s a generationally rare occurrence. Bet against Trump at your own peril.
Additionally, a loss is still a loss, and a nine-point loss in Tennessee won’t settle the long-simmering feud between the radical leftists and the more traditional Democrats. If anything, it’ll exacerbate it.
As Axios explained:
Democrats were encouraged by what the results could mean in the 2026 midterms for candidates in less conservative districts now represented by Republicans — but wondered whether they could’ve come closer to winning by running a more moderate Democrat.
[…]
Hope — and regret — for progressives. [Democratic candidate Aftyn] Behn, who campaigned with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), was hit with millions of dollars’ worth of attack ads highlighting past comments like calling herself “radical” and boasting about “bullying the ICE vehicles.”
- The GOP’s bet that those controversial remarks would activate some of the district’s MAGA base in an off-year election was proven right.
- On Tuesday, some moderate Democrats privately and publicly argued a more centrist candidate might have won, or come closer to it, reflecting the party’s debate over whether to nominate “electable” moderates or progressives who energize young voters.
Still, all elections reveal something. There are always new datapoints to consider, and the Tennessee special election was no exception. Here are the REAL takeaways:
- If absolutely nothing changes between now and Nov. 2026, the GOP will lose no more than 35 seats. (Which is actually 5 less than Republicans lost in the 2018 midterms.)
- Affordability is far and away the biggest issue in the country. The Dems’ strategy is to blame it ALL on Trump and the GOP — and the media will help ‘em every step of the way. The Republicans need a narrative that blames the Democrats for sky-high inflation, communicates improvements, and makes voters optimistic that our economy is improving.
- The 2026 midterms are still a jump ball, because a 13-point lead — with 11 months to go — is as soft as JB Pritzker’s belly. The die is NOT cast; we’re only in the first inning. Trump and the GOP can win the midterms if they improve their “affordability” storytelling.
The Democrats still have the historic headwinds and ample reasons for optimism. But the GOP has plenty of reasons for optimism, too. (Just don’t expect the media to admit it.)
The Republican Party should respond in two ways:
- Demonize socialism, whether it’s “Democratic Socialism,” European-style socialism, or anything else. Socialism leads to government monopolies, higher prices, and the theft of private property. Since the Dems are gonna present socialistic policies as the “solution” to affordability, we need to drive a stake through its vampiric heart ASAP. (Plus, attacking socialism helps unite conservatives, while also exploiting a faultline within the Democratic Party.)
- Change how we talk about affordability. Trump must stop calling it “a Democrat scam” because it’s far too real for too many voters. We need to (forcefully) remind Americans that inflation exploded under Biden and the Democrats — and an irrefutable “dashboard of prices” would be extraordinarily helpful. (I’d include five noncontroversial household staples, i.e. the price of gasoline, the price of eggs, the price of diapers, etc. And then, on as many government websites and social media channels as possible, we should track the wonderful results.) We must prove to the American people that Trump’s policies are working, because the media sure as hell won’t do it for us!
Related: MAGA at the Crossroads: With Record-Low Approval Ratings, How Does Trump Roar Back?
So let the Democrats crow about the “expectations game” — and how super-duper it was to “only” lose by nine points. (Way to go, guys!)
After all, the expectations game is for losers. I’m more partial to the Bill Parcells standard: You are what your record says you are.
One Last Thing: The Democrats are on the ropes, but make no mistake: The donkeys are still dangerous. We need your help to succeed!
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