The joint U.S.-Israel operation to bomb Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities resulted in severe damage to Tehran’s nuclear program but failed to completely eliminate it, according to an Israeli think tank report.
The report by a former Israeli Defense Force military intelligence official states that the Israeli part of the operation conducted in June was very complex and involved Israeli F-35 stealth jets, drone strikes, missile attacks, cyber operations and sabotage.
The effectiveness of the raid was described as “mixed,” with the strikes causing an “appreciable delay” in the Iranian nuclear program while possibly leading to an acceleration of clandestine nuclear weaponization or justifying a nuclear “breakout” by Tehran.
The raid also could lead to regional escalation, a shift in Iranian nuclear posture and possibly a “recalibration” of Iran’s internal deterrence calculus, the report said.
Published Nov. 17 by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, the report noted that the attacks on Iran were carried out with “vital” support from U.S. B-2 bombers and other U.S. warplanes and support aircraft.
Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said shortly after the raid that early battle damage assessments indicated the bombing raid inflicted “extremely severe damage” on nuclear sites at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
Seven B-2s flying 18 hours from the U.S. dropped 14 massive ordnance penetrator bombs, or MOPS, during the June 21 raid. It was the first use of the 30,000-pound penetrator bomb in a complex and high-risk attack.
The operation was code-named “Midnight Hammer.”
The Israeli report stated that the bombing raid was the third for Israel, combining intelligence and military capabilities to take out threatening nuclear facilities.
Israel conducted debilitating airstrikes on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981, known as “Operation Opera,” and in 2007 against Syria’s al-Kibar nuclear plant, called “Operation Outside the Box.” Both were conducted by Israeli F-16 and F-15 jets.
While the “surgical precision” of the attacks in Iraq and Syria was described in the report as high and extremely high, respectively, the Iran attack was gauged as “satisfactory” and “might have required even greater precision due to dispersed and hardened targets.”
Diplomatic fallout for Israel is expected to be “bearable” and dependent on an unstable geopolitical climate, the report said.
As with the earlier attacks, Israel declared that the Iranian attack was conducted under a doctrinal principle of destroying “illegitimate nuclear faculties possessed by its enemies,” the report said.
Israeli intelligence had failed to detect Libya’s secret nuclear program that was discovered and dismantled by the U.S. and Britain in 2003, the report said.
“Israel’s destruction of Iran’s nuclear capacities was a composite strike in that it targeted three facilities rather than one,” the report said, noting that during several days of raids, Israeli Air Force jets attacked active and highly fortified nuclear targets and other strategic installations.
“The attack was somewhat expected, as it took place one day after the expiration of a 60-day deadline President Trump had given Iran to renew a nuclear agreement,” the report said.
Israel also faced large but mostly ineffective Iranian retaliation, with attacks on Israel’s Dimona nuclear research center and a biological research center in Ness Ziona, the report said.
Considering Iran’s cyber warfare capabilities, it is uncertain whether the Iranian retaliation has ceased, the report said.
According to the report, the main Iranian targets were uranium enrichment facilities where centrifuges were being used to create highly enriched uranium.
The facilities were operational, with “advanced with redundancy” and some enriched uranium stockpiled.
The threat was described in the report as “urgent” and “existential,” based on the unpredictability of Iran moving to a weaponization phase of its nuclear program.
The intelligence leader was the chief of IDF intelligence, Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder, and the attack commander was IAF Commander Maj. Gen Tomer Bar, the report said.
The raid stretched between 745 miles to 932 miles, and required air refueling of aircraft and forward basing, the report said.
The Israeli aircraft likely used advanced Rampage missiles, an air-to-surface missile developed by Israel Military Industries and Israel Aerospace Industries.
The missile is a standoff weapon used by aircraft to safely destroy targets like radar installations, communications centers, weapons storage facilities and airfields while staying out of range of air defenses.
Other bombs used by the Israelis were so-called “SPICE” satellite-guided bombs, so called for being smart, precise impact and cost-effective.
The Israelis’ strikes were said to be integrated and combined cyber-attacks, air defense jamming, and the long-range Rampage and Spice bombs, the report said.
In assessing the impact, the report stated that the raid on Iran caused “severe damage but not complete elimination” and that some Iranian military and technical personnel were casualties.
On the strategic and political impact of the bombing raid, the report said reaction was divided, with Western states remaining “muted” and China and Russia condemning the attack.
“The three strikes tightly followed the long-term Israeli fundamental concept of disabling the acquisition by a foe of nuclear weapons, no matter how difficult the circumstances (distance to the targeted facilities; likely diplomatic fallout; expected retaliation by the attacked country),” the report said.
The Iran attack was said to be especially difficult and highlights increased Israeli intelligence capabilities, offensive strike power and greater military maneuverability.
“The involvement of the Americans was a vital factor that differentiated the Iran strike from the earlier strikes on Iraq and Syria,” the report said.
“In addition to assisting in the success of the strike, it had a mitigating effect on negative international reactions and diplomatic fallout, as it was a direct signal of Washington’s unwillingness to tolerate Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons.”
The report was written by Dany Shoham, a former senior analyst in IDF military intelligence and the Israeli Defense Ministry, now with the Begin-Sadat Center at Bar Ilan University near Tel Aviv.
