A new NBC News poll out this week shows a shrinking path to re-election for Joe Biden and an expanding map for Donald Trump.
Can Trump really be competitive in New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, and other blue states? He currently leads in all seven swing states: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Trump has been teasing a blow-out rally in Madison Square Garden and other campaign events in New York. There is also talk in Trump circles of making a strong play for New Mexico and New Jersey.
It doesn’t mean Biden can’t catch Trump in any or all of those states. But as Trump’s competitive edge in states he has to have to win grows, Biden’s path to victory narrows.
If there wasn’t any panic in the Biden campaign previously, the cold sweats have certainly broken out after this NBC poll.
“What is most concerning is the erosion of Biden’s standing against Trump compared to four years ago,” Democrat pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, said of the results. “On every measure compared to 2020, Biden has declined. Most damning, the belief that Biden is more likely to be up to the job — the chief tenet of the Biden candidacy — has evaporated.”
Trump is beating Biden by 5% nationally. But the cross-tabs on specific issues are absolutely devastating.
Biden trails Trump, the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination, by 23 points when voters were asked who would be a better candidate to handle the economy, according to the results of a national NBC News poll released Sunday.
Those numbers come despite Biden’s recent argument that his administration’s economic policies are starting to work, telling voters in Michigan on Thursday that “inflation is coming down” and that they had “created 800,000 manufacturing jobs.”
Despite that, 55% of registered voters said they believe Trump would be the better candidate to steer the economy, compared to 33% who chose Biden.
The numbers on Biden’s handling of the border are even more disastrous. Trump has a whopping 35-point lead on the issue of which candidate would be better at securing the border. On demonstrating the necessary mental and physical health to be president, Trump is at +23.
On dealing with crime and violence, the former president leads Biden by 21 points. Trump also has double-digit leads over Biden when it comes to being competitive and effective (+16) and improving America’s standing in the world (+11).
“Biden is making no gains among groups he is going to need to pull off a victory next year,” Morning Consult’s U.S. political analyst Eli Yokley said after the swing state poll was released in December.
Related: It’s the Left That Imperils Biden’s Reelection, Not No Labels
As bad as Biden’s numbers on the economy and the border are, it’s his age and infirmities that could lead to his downfall in the end. Even Democrats say he’s too old.
“I think that [Biden’s] health and age kind of get in the way of his ability to be a good president of the United States,” said a female Democratic poll respondent from Wisconsin, who said she voted for Biden in 2020. She declined to share her name.
Three-quarters of voters, including half of Democrats, say they have concerns about President Joe Biden’s mental and physical health, according to the latest national NBC News poll.
That compares with 61% of voters who have concerns about former President Donald Trump’s multiple felony charges and less than half of voters who have concerns about his mental and physical health.
“Four more months of attention to Trump’s legal issues have not budged these numbers, with more focus on President Biden’s mental and physical health,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey.
No Democrat wants to be the first party member to argue that it’s time, “for the good of the country,” for Biden to step aside. That person would get clobbered in the press and social media.
But it should be pointed out that so far, just a handful of delegates to the convention have been chosen. A “wise old head” in the Democratic Party who’s already out of politics might step forward and suggest that Biden has to go.
Are you listening Hillary? How about you, Barack?