President Biden is cruising to an easy win in the South Carolina primary, but GOP candidate Nikki Haley could dampen his victory.
Like the 2020 primary in the Palmetto State that propelled him to the nomination, Mr. Biden is expected to prevail by a significant margin in the election Saturday. He’ll easily defeat Democratic candidates Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson. But with poll numbers showing voter dissatisfaction with the president on key issues, Mr. Biden’s allies are playing down expectations for a repeat of the turnout four years ago and say former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley may lower their numbers.
Voters do not register by party in South Carolina. Some voters who typically vote Democrat or are independent are signaling they’ll skip the Democratic primary so they can vote for Ms. Haley in the Feb. 24 GOP primary hoping to block former President Donald Trump.
“I don’t think you can set expectations for what most view as a not-so-competitive primary,” South Carolina Democratic political strategist Antjuan Seawright said. “We should be paying attention to whether people are voting in the Republican Party to ‘stop Trump’ or whether they are doing what they should be doing, which is voting in the Democratic primary. That will also have an impact on turnout.”
Ms. Haley is campaigning aggressively in her home state against both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, who she trails in GOP primary polls by an average of 27 points according to RealClearPolitics.
Ms. Haley, 51, coming off a strong second-place finish to Mr. Trump in New Hampshire but facing an uphill battle for the nomination, is casting herself as a new generation of leadership against Mr. Trump, 77 and Mr, Biden, 81.
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She is framing the two men as “stumbling seniors” and “grumpy old men” of a bygone political era.
Ms. Haley was elected to two terms as South Carolina governor, leaving that job in 2017 to serve as U.S. ambassador to the U.N. in the Trump administration.
Ms. Haley’s Democratic backers in the state prefer her, not Mr. Trump, to end up in the White House if Mr. Biden can’t win a second term. General election matchup polls currently show Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden nationally and in critical battleground states.
“I’d rather have Haley win than turn our democracy over to someone who already has publicly admitted he’d be a dictator,” Donald L. Sparks, a former Senate Democratic staffer and professor emeritus at the Citadel, wrote in the Post and Courier. “So to my Democratic friends: Yes, vote for Joe Biden in the general election, but please vote for Nikki Haley in an effort to stop Trump and his madness.”
Mr. Biden visited South Carolina on Jan. 27 stressed to voters, and particularly Black voters, their role in keeping Mr. Trump out of the White House.
“The truth is, I wouldn’t be here without the Democratic voters of South Carolina and that’s a fact,” Mr. Biden said. “You are the reason I’m president. You’re the reason Kamala Harris is a historic vice president. You’re the reason Donald Trump is a defeated former president. You’re the reason Donald Trump is a loser and you’re the reason we’re gonna win and beat him again.”
The state’s Democratic voters rescued his floundering campaign in 2020 with a near-record turnout for him.
Mr. Biden lost to Mr. Trump in South Carolina by 11 points in the general election, but Black voters in South Carolina and nationwide helped boost Mr. Biden to the nomination and the presidency.
Mr. Biden rewarded South Carolina for his 2020 primary win by giving the state the first-in-the-nation Democratic primary, pushing aside predominantly white New Hampshire, where he placed fifth in the 2020 primary.
New Hampshire ignored the new schedule and held their primary on Jan. 23, forcing Biden allies to spend more than $1 million on an aggressive write-in campaign. Mr. Biden prevailed over Mr. Phillips, who ran aggressively in the Granite State. The president won just under 65% of the vote, while Mr. Phillips pulled in nearly 20%. Polls show Mr. Phillips trailing Mr. Biden in South Carolina 69% to 5%.
On Saturday, Mr. Biden is depending on a robust turnout to show he’s a president who can generate enthusiasm and votes amid polling that shows black voters are gravitating to Mr. Trump.
A USA/Suffolk University poll released in January found Mr. Biden’s support among Black voters shrunk from 87% in the 2020 election to 63%.
In a narrow race, such a decline could cost Mr. Biden a second term.
Democratic Party officials, looking to revive support, launched a six-figure advertising campaign last week to get the minority vote out for Mr. Biden in South Carolina and Nevada, which holds a primary on Feb. 6. Democratic National Committee officials said they are using “creative tactics” to reach Black voters in South Carolina and Hispanic and Asian voters in Nevada.
Advertising in South Carolina, for instance, highlights the $7.3 billion Mr. Biden provided to historically Black colleges and universities, the move to cap insulin at $35 per month and “the fundamental threat to American freedoms from an extreme MAGA agenda.”
Party officials will be watching the results closely to determine what Mr. Biden must do to win over general election voters nationwide.
“He’s test-driving messaging in rural communities like those in South Carolina, with African American voters, with young voters, with women voters, on his accomplishments,” Mr. Seawrite said. “The exit polling will tell us what messaging resonates the most.”