Even as Russia has begun making some noises about being open to peace talks that might pause the fighting in Ukraine, the New York Times reports this weekend that Vladimir Putin is sounding very optimistic about his prospects in the war. Things went quite poorly for the Russians during the first year, with their army being driven away from Kyiv and routed outside of the city of Kharkiv. Through it all, however, Putin stuck with his Defense Minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, and other senior officials. But now that the tide seems to have turned and Russia is making steady advances, Putin has begun making some changes. He recently removed Shoigu, replacing him with his trusted economic adviser, Andrei R. Belousov. He also had Shoigu’s top aid arrested. Recruiting for the Russian military is up after sagging previously, and the Ukrainians are giving up ground in multiple sections of the front. All in all, Putin sounds like he’s in control and on the move.
Now, with the battlefield crises seemingly behind him and Mr. Prigozhin dead, the Russian leader has decided to act, changing defense ministers for the first time in more than a decade and allowing a number of corruption arrests among top ministry officials.
The moves have ushered in the biggest overhaul at the Russian Defense Ministry since the invasion began and have confirmed Mr. Putin’s preference for avoiding big, responsive changes in the heat of a crisis and instead acting at a less conspicuous time of his own choosing.
“We have to understand that Putin is a person who is stubborn and not very flexible,” said Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter who now lives outside Russia. “He believes that reacting too quickly and rapidly to a changing situation is a sign of weakness.”
It sounds like Vladimir Putin had previously been worried about discontent at home over the progress of the war, as well as public complaints about corruption in the upper ranks of the military. Some of those complaints centered around Yevgeny V. Prigozhin who would go on to briefly start an uprising and march his Wagner Group forces toward Moscow, initially not receiving any punishment for the seeming betrayal. But now that Prigozhin has shuffled off this mortal coil in an unfortunate aircraft “accident,” new personnel perceived as being more loyal to Putin are being put in place. Also, Putin handily won his reelection bid (not that he faced any serious opposition), so he seems to be acting as if he has a freer hand to make changes and advance the war effort.
It remains to be seen how well these changes will work out, however. Belousov is clearly a trusted Putin loyalist, but he is a finance minister with absolutely no military experience. Yet he has somehow been put in charge of the Defense Department. Presumably, he will be given some experienced aides to offer strategic advice, but he will still be responsible for any upcoming successes or failures.
These are all worrisome signs in terms of any upcoming peace talks. Putin is feeling optimistic and he has good reason to be encouraged. The Russian army has already started retaking territory around Kharkiv and they have been slowly pushing back the Ukrainian lines all along the eastern front. They are still able to hammer Ukraine’s energy grid and other infrastructure while sustaining very little damage inside of Russia. The point is that Putin has very little incentive to cut a deal favorable to Ukraine and pause the fighting. He’s winning. Why would he give anything up?
When Putin went to China recently to meet with Xi Jinping, the CCP leader put forward a peace plan that Putin described as “genuine” and well-intentioned. That raised hopes among some analysts that a breakthrough could be on the way. But upon returning home, Putin has, if anything, cranked up the war machine into the next gear. Ukraine needs to come up with a serious offer that Putin might accept and have it put before Putin by someone he trusts, perhaps the President of Turkey. He might still be convinced to shut this conflict down and allow the Ukrainians to begin rebuilding, but Kyiv is going to need to swallow its pride and concede some territory if that’s going to happen.