The shocking death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Sunday has elicited mixed reactions internationally.
Thanks to his brutal reputation as the “Butcher of Tehran” because of the mass political executions he oversaw in 1988, many in Iran and elsewhere rejoiced upon hearing of his death.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s White House and NATO have been publicly ridiculed for expressing “condolences” for the brutal political figure.
However, as the Financial Times explained, the days of violence and unrest for the Iranian people will not likely end with the death of their bloodthirsty president.
Rather, seeing as, according to Iranian law, the country must hold an emergency election in 50 days, his sudden death in a helicopter crash could instead unleash even more political unrest and violence.
Raisi already facilitated riots and protests when, in 2022, his government arrested 22-year-old Mahsa Amini for allegedly not wearing her hijab properly, and she died in custody.
The subsequent crackdown on protesters saw 500 of them killed, while another 22,000 were arrested, according to The Times of Israel.
Moreover, as the Financial Times pointed out, Raisi was considered a shoo-in for a second term and was being groomed to succeed his mentor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader of Iran (the supreme leader is above the president and serves for life).
Now, Raisi’s death has left no clear contender for the Iranian presidency and no obvious successor for Khamenei.
Is Iran in danger of chaotic violence?
Many of the potential presidential candidates are loyalists and supporters of a hardline Islamic regime.
Acting President Mohammad Mokhber, who was vice president under Raisi, is one possibility.
Another is Saeed Jalili, a hardliner who served as Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, according to Middle East Eye.
One potential contender, Ali Larijani, came from a clerical family like Raisi, while others could come from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which became much more involved in political affairs under Raisi. Among them is Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a former air force commander.
While most foreign policy analysts, including those in the Center for Strategic and International Studies, don’t expect Iran’s foreign or domestic policies to change all that much, the fact remains that a key figure in the region is now gone.
What will become of Iran?
Khamenei is 85 and most likely won’t be in his position much longer.
The country is no stranger to violence, and this hasn’t changed lately (in fact, arguably, it has only gotten worse).
And now there is an unexpected power vacuum — and an opportunity for those who want it most to fight their way to the top.
Perhaps it could even provide a chance for the populace to rise up and try to overthrow their tyrannical government (though the latter possibility is, admittedly, unlikely).
With new up-and-comers now able to fight for positions of power, will we see more violence in Iran?
As volatile as this region has been historically, the question might not be “if” but “when.”
