ANALYSIS:
Larry Hogan showed political magic in his two victories for governorship but will likely struggle to pull off a repeat as he tries to become the first Maryland Republican since 1980 to win a U.S. Senate seat.
The Republican Party anointed Mr. Hogan its nominee Tuesday, pitting him against Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. She won a heavily contested primary to emerge as the Democratic Party nominee for a seat being vacated by Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin.
Seeking to become the state’s first Black senator, Ms. Alsobrooks has never before run a statewide campaign. That makes the battle-tested Mr. Hogan her toughest possible draw for a general election opponent.
If Mr. Hogan can flip the seat, it would likely doom Democrats’ hopes of retaining control of the Senate. Ms. Alsobrooks is trumpeting that argument in deep-blue Maryland.
She called Mr. Hogan the “BFF” of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Republican, and characterized him as the linchpin to the party’s legislative plans.
“If he is elected, he will give Republicans the majority they need to pass a national abortion ban, and you also should be clear that he will not support a national law to protect abortion rights, he will not oppose anti-choice judges, including nominees to the U.S. Supreme Court — even in the wake of the reversal of Roe v. Wade,” Ms. Alsobrooks said at her victory party.
Mr. Hogan told voters he was the bipartisan champion they had elected twice as governor. He promised to cut through political tribalism and finger-pointing in Washington that he said failed to “deliver real, common-sense, bipartisan solutions on the important issues that matter.”
“To my Democratic and independent friends, you know me and you know my proven track record of reaching across the aisle to find common ground for the common good,” Mr . Hogan said at his primary night party in Annapolis. “You know that I’m not going to be just one more Capitol Hill Republican.
“You know that I have the courage to put people over politics and to put country over party, and you know that I will stand up to the current president, the former president, to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party,” he said.
Hammering home that idea, the Hogan campaign on Wednesday launched “Democrats for Hogan.”
In an accompanying video, former state Sen. Robert Zirkin, the group’s co-chair, said Mr. Hogan is a proven leader who would help cut through the “hyperpartisanship in Washington” and work across party lines to accomplish things.
“I’ve been a lifelong Democrat, and as a Democrat, I’m excited to vote and support and work for Larry Hogan for the United States Senate,” Mr. Zirkin said.
Mr. Hogan, a prized recruit of national Republicans, emerged victorious in a multicandidate primary race.
With 83% of the vote counted, Mr. Hogan led his closest competitor, Robin Ficker, 61.9% to 30.1%.
In the Democratic primary, Ms. Alsobrooks had a 54% to 41.9% lead over Mr. Trone, who is White and one of the wealthiest members of Congress. He spent $54 million of his fortune on the race.
Ms. Alsobrooks raised $7.8 million and received endorsements from Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Chris Van Hollen, and Reps. Steny Hoyer and Jaime Raskin.
Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics said the Maryland race remains firmly in his “likely Democratic” column.
He said no Republican candidate in Maryland has come within single digits of a Democrat in the 44 years since Charles “Mac” Mathias won a Senate race.
Former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele came closest in 2006. He lost to Mr. Cardin by 10 percentage points.
Mr. Hogan’s challenge was laid bare in a recent Emerson College poll that showed he trailed Ms. Alsobrooks 48% to 38%, with 14% of respondents undecided.
In his post-primary analysis, Mr. Kondik said Maryland may retain “goodwill and nostalgia” for Mr. Hogan but it is hard to see how the former governor overcomes the state’s political DNA.
Mr. Kondik likened the race to the 2018 Senate bids of popular former Govs. Phil Bredesen of Tennessee and Steve Bullock of Montana. He said they were “strong recruits who nonetheless ended up losing by about 10 percentage points apiece as partisan gravity took over in states that lean fairly strongly to the other party.”
“It’s clearly not as sleepy as Senate races in other deeply red or deeply blue states, but it’s hard for anyone to generate the massive amount of crossover support required to win a state that the [Democratic Party] is likely to win by at least 25 points for president,” he said of Mr. Hogan’s chances.