Military and foreign policy analysts have been warning us for quite some time that China has been steadily preparing itself to be on a war footing. The massive investments they have made in their military were a powerful indicator, and that’s not a recent development. (In February, Foreign Policy Magazine revealed that China’s inflation-adjusted military budget increased tenfold from 1990 to 2020.) The Chinese have been indoctrinating their youth to be prepared for military service at earlier ages. They have already begun training college students to operate tanks and engage in live-fire exercises. But now the training is beginning even earlier. Elementary school students will be taught about the importance of national defense and military training will be required for high school students. The new proposal has been opened for public comment, but that’s only a formality in China. The CCP does as it wishes and anyone who publicly opposes these decisions will likely be receiving an unpleasant visit. (Nikkei Asia)
China wants to promote awareness of national defense in children as young as elementary school under proposed legislation that would require military training at high schools and universities.
The aim is to teach all members of society the “theory, knowledge and skills associated with national defense,” according to draft revisions to the National Defense Education Law.
The move to amend the law for the first time since 2018 comes amid rising tensions with the U.S. over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Some universities have already allowed students to train with live ammunition and tanks.
The draft had its first reading by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress late last month and has been opened to public comment.
The difference between a country with a volunteer military like the United States and an authoritarian country like China is that they can summon up an army and other military branches of whatever size they like. You can argue that our military is more motivated and can outperform our adversaries, but China has a population of 1.4 billion people. China already has the largest standing army in the world with more than two million active-duty troops and another half million in the reserves. It’s unclear if the United States even has that many bullets on any given day. And now China will be training even more future troops.
It seems unlikely that the Chinese would be making all of these investments if they weren’t preparing for war, but who would they be fighting? The United States immediately comes to mind, obviously, but there are other targets on the list. Taiwan is probably near the top and the CCP has made no secret of the fact that they plan to “reconsolidate” the island with the mainland. There have also been plenty of recent naval skirmishes between China and the Philippines. There have even been suggestions that China could be preparing to move against India. That country is another massive population center, but India really doesn’t have much in the way of military strength by comparison.
Masafumi Iida of Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies is quoted as saying that Beijing is making the public aware that war could break out and working to “make it easier to mobilize them in the event of an emergency.” Of course, the “emergency” in question would almost certainly be caused by China. Nobody is expecting another country to attack China out of the blue. Japan, for example, has a very fraught relationship with China but they’re not going to attempt an invasion.
Aside from the country’s formal military branches, CNN reported in February that Chinese companies have been setting up their own volunteer militias, arming and training them just as Beijing’s army does. Nearly two dozen major Chinese firms, including a privately-owned dairy conglomerate (!) have established standing fighting forces. This is all done with the approval and support of the Chinese government.
The writing appears to be on the wall and we would be foolish to ignore it. We no longer live in a world characterized by clear United States and NATO hegemony, if we ever truly did. Speaking as someone who lived through and served in the military during the Cold War, I’m not looking forward to experiencing that again. But a cold war against the new axis of evil would still be better than a hot war. It appears that China is preparing itself for either scenario.