A NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll was released on May 1. Some findings caught political analysts off-guard on Wednesday’s MSNBC show hosted by Ana Cabrera.
The key to winning elections is with the support of independent voters. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have enough voters to win elections with only their party’s support. So, imagine the angst when the Marist survey showed that more than 50% of independent respondents said President Biden is a greater threat to democracy than former President Trump. How about that?
MSNBC political analyst Susan Del Percio found it “shocking”, which isn’t surprising for a talking head on MSNBC but she is a Republican strategist. What kind of analyst is she if this is a shock? Independents have been moving away from Lyin’ Biden for months. Independent voters were crucial to Biden’s victory in 2020. Biden’s support level in all demographics is down. The White House and the Biden campaign have not gained ground with voters so far. Trump is running laps around Hidin’ Biden in polls.
“I find it shocking, honestly. I can’t make sense of that number. I wish I could,” she said. “I wish I could have some really great insight to it, but I don’t know if it’s an outlier or not, because the other numbers of independents are going in the right direction. So, that may be it.”
She reminds me of Republican strategists of the pre-Trump days. She says other numbers of independents are “going in the right direction.” Going to Biden? Is that her idea of the right direction instead of the candidate who will be her party’s nominee?
Republicans who decide to vote for Joe Biden should no longer call themselves Republicans. Biden is beholden to the fringe progressives in his party. His policies are the opposite of Republican policy. Plus, there is the Marxist direction Biden is comfortable taking our country. Conservatives conserve our American values. Democrats in 2024, led by Joe Biden, are hellbent on destroying America as we know it.
I don’t think this will turn out to be an outlier. I say that because voters are beginning to pay attention. Even more voters will do so around Labor Day. As election day nears, voters make up their minds.
This election is a unicorn. It is uncharted territory for a presidential election in our lifetimes. A sitting president is running against a former president. We know who they are. Both have records to show how they govern and what policies they support.
The candidates are chasing 10% of the voters surveyed. Only 10% of the people surveyed are undecided.
64% of registered voters, up from 60%, say they already know for whom they plan to vote and will not change their mind. An additional 26% report they have a good idea of the candidate they will support but could stray. 10% say they have not made up their minds. 67% of Biden’s supporters, compared with 63% of Trump’s backers, solidly support their choice of candidate.
One point I will make is that the survey used registered voters, not likely voters. Likely voters are a more reliable sampling, as a general rule. As with all polls or surveys, take them with a grain of salt. It is good to keep an eye on them, though, to see if trends are developing and to take the temperature of the political atmosphere.
The survey shows Trump and Biden neck in neck in various categories. Supporters of both candidates have said the election will be a blow-out for Biden or Trump. Polling would indicate that Trump is in the lead. However, Democrats play dirty and anything can happen in the six months leading up to the election.
Democrats thought they would keep Trump in court ( or jail) until election day and off the campaign trail. The cases against Trump, other than the one currently playing out in Manhattan, now are falling apart. They have been postponed and no one thinks they will be tried before the November election. The lawfare playbook to keep Trump out of the White House is backfiring.
Voters see what is happening. They are not stupid. Americans have a strong sense of fairness. The lawfare strategy introduced by Team Biden in a presidential election doesn’t land well with regular people – the people who are not consumed with politics and cable news shows.
Six months is a long time in politics. Things may change if Trump is convicted in that Manhattan courtroom. We have to wait and see how it plays out.