The RealClearPolitics polling average for Pennsylvania shows a razor-thin margin for President Trump, but the latest poll from the Keystone State does not tell that story.
It shows Trump winning by a pretty decisive margin, both in a head-to-head race and a multi-candidate race.
Read it here (2/2): https://t.co/48pKdoVE1u
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) May 7, 2024
If Trump actually wins, Pennsylvania Biden’s path to victory will be extraordinarily difficult to find. Arizona looks out of reach, as does Georgia. North Carolina could be a blowout, and even Nevada looks out of reach. That leaves Wisconsin and Michigan as competitive.
Trump’s lead in the polling averages of battleground states, including Pennsylvania, presents a formidable challenge for Biden. Despite Pennsylvania being a state where Biden is expected to perform well, the current data suggests a tough road ahead for him.
The new AARP poll shows decisive movement in Trump’s direction since the end of April, although comparing polls from different companies is a dicey proposition. The latest poll before this one ended April 29th, showing Trump up 2. In the head-to-head in AARP’s poll, Trump is up by four, which suggests that the state is moving out of reach for Biden. In a 4-way, Trump is up 5. Those aren’t small numbers in states that are battlegrounds.
Insert all the normal caveats: it’s early, one poll doesn’t mean much, etc. etc. You know the drill.
Except if you look at the timing of the polls, a clear trend emerges. Trump does better each week. That likely means there is a trend. It’s not proof of one, but it sure looks like one.
The internals of the poll are brutal for Biden. Trump’s personal and job-related approval ratings are significantly higher than Biden’s, suggesting that many people have not just rejected Biden but reassessed their opinion of Trump, who has net positive numbers regarding his job performance. This means that many people who don’t like him think highly of him as the Chief Executive.
Trump’s 51% approval vs Biden’s 36% is just devastating for Biden, as is his -23% net approval as a person. He is not kindly Uncle Joe in people’s eyes, but the man who is ruining the country. Biden’s net favorable with DEMOCRATS is only +40 while Trump’s with Republicans is net +70.
With Independents, Biden is dramatically behind Trump both in image and in job approval. Trump’s image with Independents is still net negative, but still 13 points higher than Biden’s. When asked about job approval, Trump is in positive territory, while Biden is 37 points behind Trump.
37 points. Yowza. Independents really don’t think Biden is doing a good job.
When you drill down to voters 50+–AARP’s constituency after all–you can see why Biden isn’t doing so well. Look at the issues they care about.
Of the top 3 issues, only one favors Biden–abortion–with immigration and inflation being the top two. Immigration is way ahead of the pack, which doesn’t bode well for Sleepy Joe.
The big divides are mostly what you would expect. College-educated voters like Biden, non college voters like Trump. Rural voters hate Biden, urban voters Trump. Biden still polls well with Black voters in Pennsylvania, although the margin may be a bit weak for him.
One thing that might surprise is that younger voters hate Biden much more than they do Trump, although the category is 18-49 (AARP, remember!), so it’s unclear how that cohort would break down if you divided this group into smaller groups.
Persuadable voters–people who don’t vote straight ticket–are not as passionate about immigration, but still put it as one of their top 2 issues along with inflation. It’s just that inflation tops immigration as the #1 issue. If this election is fought on this territory–inflation and immigration–Trump wins.
In short, this poll is a disaster for Biden. If nothing else it tells us that Biden will have to spend a lot of time and money in Pennsylvania because he has a ton of ground to make up in an environment that is distinctly unfavorable.
Expect the volume of Trump hate to be turned up to 11, and expect that to matter not in the least. Biden is putting most of his eggs in the “prosecute Trump” basket, and even there things look, if not bleak, not that good for him. Politically, at least, Biden is losing on that front too.
Meaning they need a conviction for it to help, and it may not even then. I suspect that most persuadables know that these are political prosecutions.
Does this mean Trump will win? Of course not. What it tells us is that unless Biden can shift The Narrative™ he is on a path to losing. Soon this election could be outside the margin of fraud.