GUERNSEY, Channel Islands — While the futuristic political thriller “Civil War” plays in theaters and generates discussion across the United States, an organization promoting the breakup of the United Kingdom has suffered its latest blow.
Scotland‘s First Minister Humza Yousaf, 39, who also heads the independence-focused Scottish National Party, or SNP, resigned this week, making him the third consecutive SNP leader to depart under a cloud of controversy.
Promoters of British unity hope the resignation will cool Scottish nationalism, even though support for independence remains steady in polls.
Mr. Yousaf‘s downfall came after he nixed a power-sharing deal with the Scottish Green Party last week in the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood, Edinburgh. Mr. Yousaf gambled that the impossibility of meeting previously agreed-to emissions targets would trump politicking. He was wrong: Other parties threatened no-confidence votes, leading to his downfall.
“I clearly underestimated the level of hurt and upset I caused Green colleagues,” Mr. Yousaf admitted in an emotional resignation speech. “I am not willing to trade my values and principles, or do deals with whomever, simply for retaining power.”
The child of Pakistani parents, Mr. Yousaf was the first Muslim and the first second-generation immigrant to capture a seat in Scotland‘s parliament. He became first minister in March 2023.
However, Scotland under the SNP is suffering from failing infrastructure, heavy drug use and divisive debates over gender and hate-speech legislation. Police are probing the party’s finances.
Mr. Yousaf will remain in his post until the SNP chooses a new leader. That could be tricky.
The week’s drama has exposed breaches “within the SNP itself over independence strategy, economic policy and social issues such as gender health care,” the BBC commented Wednesday.
Mr. Yousaf‘s replacement will be the SNP‘s third leader in 18 months.
His predecessor Nicola Sturgeon resigned in March 2023 amid job stress and corruption allegations related to her husband. Her predecessor, Alex Salmond, quit after Scots failed to support a 2014 referendum vote for independence.
Britain’s ruling Conservative Party government, which must call a general election by January 2025, is the main opposition party in Edinburgh.
Some expect Labour — the main opposition in Westminster which, which has in recent years, lost major ground in Edinburgh to the SNP — to gain renewed traction across Scotland as a result of Mr Yousaf‘s woes.
Sticking together
Any fall in support for the SNP would firm up the wobbly nationhood of the U.K., one of America’s closest allies.
A national breakup would degrade London’s global stature and military capabilities. Scotsmen and Irishmen have long played major roles in the British military, and the country’s nuclear submarine base is located in Scotland.
The U.K. is a union of four separate polities. According to the official census, it is home to 63.2 million persons. Of them, England has 57 million; Scotland, 5.3 million; Wales 3 million; and Northern Ireland, 1.8 million.
The union has historically faced multiple challenges, from Scottish Jacobite revolts in the 18th century to low-key Welsh independence activism to the violent “Troubles” in Northern Ireland. Shifting demographics in Northern Ireland — republican Catholics have outnumbered loyalist Protestants since 2021 — could feasibly precipitate another move to seek union with Ireland.
In recent years, however, it is Scottish independence activism has earned higher visibility.
After years of lobbying in London, a devolved Scottish parliament was created in 1998-1999, though Scottish parties continue to occupy seats in Westminster.
After the SNP won an overall majority in Holyrood in 2011, it promoted all-out independence. British Prime Minister David Cameron agreed to a referendum in 2014, but Scots voted 55% to 45% in favor of remaining within the U.K.
That looked to kill the idea for the foreseeable future, but Britain’s decision in the “Brexit” referendum two years later to leave the European Union rekindled independence passions in Scotland: While England had voted to exit the EU, Scots voted to remain.
Brexit motivated a new wave of post-2016 independence demands from Edinburgh. Westminster has cited the “once-in-a-generation” condition of the 2014 referendum to resist these demands, leaving matters at an impasse.
Mr. Yousaf‘s resignation sparked excited commentary, much of it hostile to the party and its record.
“The fall of Humza Useless means independence is dead for a generation,” wrote Daily Mail commentator Andrew Neill. “The only legacy of the SNP is decline and decay.”
As a result, “The Union is safe for the foreseeable future,” Mr. Neill suggested.
But others argue that may be wishful thinking.
“It seems unlikely that the latest problems in the SNP will have any effect on support for independence,” the Scottish paper The National wrote in an editorial. “Independence polls have held steady and not reflected a decline in support.”
Polls in April found 53% of Scots still support independence.