Former President Donald Trump trails President Biden in deep-blue New York by just ten percentage points, according to a new poll.
According to a New York Times Siena poll, Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump in the Empire State by 47% to 37%. The survey also shows that 4% would vote for someone else, 7% wouldn’t vote and 5% either don’t know who to vote for or refused to respond.
A 10-point advantage would be good news for a candidate in many states, but not for Mr. Biden in New York. The Democratic president won the state in 2020 by more than double that margin, getting 60.9% to Mr. Trump’s 37.8%.
“The good news for Biden is that he continues to hold a double-digit lead over Trump in solidly blue New York. The bad news for Biden is he only leads by 10 points, 47-37%, after leading 48-36% in February, in a state where enrolled Democrats outnumber Republicans better than two-to-one,” Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg said.
Mr. Greenberg noted that Mr. Biden has the support of 72% of Democrats, while Mr. Trump has the support of 81% of Republicans and leads with independents 46%-32%.
Party affiliation shows that 4% of New York Democrats, 4% of New York Republicans and 5% New York independents would vote for someone other than Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump.
According to the poll, 6% of New York Democrats do not plan to vote compared to 3% of New York Republicans and 9% of the state’s independents.
The poll also shows that Mr. Trump’s getting 27% support from New York’s Black voters, to Mr. Biden‘s 67%. Among New York’s Hispanic voters, Mr. Biden has 36% support while Mr. Trump has 26% support and 38% of that demographic group gives other answers.
Mr. Trump also trails Mr. Biden by just five percentage points with younger voters ages 18-34.
While those numbers among Blacks, Hispanics and youth — all key parts of the Democratic coalition — might not be enough to flip New York, if they held in closer states and the rest of the country, the Democrats’ chances of holding onto the White House and Senate become very slim.
The last time a Republican president won New York was in 1984, as part of a 49-state sweep, President Reagan defeated Democrat Walter Mondale and captured the state by eight percentage points.
However, President George H.W. Bush lost New York twice, including a 13-point loss in his failed 1992 re-election bid. Since then though, no Republican presidential candidate has done even that well, losing the state by margins of between 18 and 28 percentage points.
The numbers come at a time when Mr. Trump is facing a criminal trial in New York City on charges of falsifying business records to hide a hush-money payment during the 2016 presidential election campaign.
“A majority of New Yorkers, 54%, say the Manhattan proceedings are ‘a legitimate trial to determine’ whether Trump is or is not guilty of criminal behavior, rather than a ‘witch hunt’ to ‘interfere in this year’s presidential election,’ a view held by 30%,” Mr. Greenberg said.
“More than three-quarters of Democrats and a plurality of independents say the trial is legitimate, while two-thirds of Republicans call it a witch hunt.”
Mr. Biden plans to campaign in New York this week, while Mr. Trump is on trial in Manhattan. Mr. Biden is expected to be in Syracuse to discuss the CHIPS and Science Act. Afterward, he is expected to travel to Westchester County to participate in a campaign reception.
The New York Times Siena poll surveyed 806 New York state registered voters, was conducted April 15-17, and has a 4.1 percentage point margin of error.