As you’ve probably seen by now, the Ukraine aid package finally passed out of the House yesterday amid a number of defections by conservative Republicans. Aid for Israel was approved as well. You would likely think that this was a pretty big deal, no matter where you stand on the subject of endless cash flowing to Kyiv in an effort to protect its borders while ours are ignored. We’re talking about a lot of money and a very unstable part of the world. There are also nagging concerns about the possibility of a nuclear war breaking out. But that wasn’t the focus for David Frum at The Atlantic. No, for Frum, this event was all about the Bad Orange Man. Since Trump had opposed the aid package, the primary takeaway at the Atlantic was that Ukraine won and “Trump lost.” This really shows where some people’s priorities are during an election season.
Ukraine won. Trump lost.
The House vote to aid Ukraine renews hope that Ukraine can still win its war. It also showed how and why Donald Trump should lose the 2024 election.
For nine years, Trump has dominated the Republican Party. Senators might have loathed him, governors might have despised him, donors might have ridiculed him, college-educated Republican voters might have turned against him—but LOL, nothing mattered. Enough of the Republican base supported him. Everybody else either fell in line, retired from politics, or quit the party.
You can browse through that entire tedious article and there is barely a mention of the current situation in Ukraine. The focus is entirely on Donald Trump and the influence he exerts over his party. It’s an airing of grievances that is rather breathtaking to behold. You can almost hear the gnashing of teeth and rending of sackcloth in the background.
One of the few mentions of the subject at hand comes near the top when Frum describes the passage of the aid package as something that “renews hope that Ukraine can still win its war.” But is that really true? The debate over and eventual passage of the aid package was an exercise in politics, not a strategic military maneuver. The more realistic members of the mainstream media have long since concluded that Ukraine will not be able to win the ongoing war, even if you define “winning” as returning to the borders that existed prior to the Russian invasion a couple of years ago. As Politico reported yesterday, Russia is not only not being driven back, but they are making steady if incremental advances against the Ukrainian lines.
The news that the U.S. is sending additional forces to Ukraine comes as senior officials warned last week that Russia has been gaining momentum.
CIA Director Bill Burns said Ukraine could lose the war this year if Congress didn’t approve the assistance package.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, speaking to lawmakers, said, “We’re already seeing things on the battlefield begin to shift a bit in Russia’s favor. We are seeing them make incremental gains. We’re seeing the Ukrainians be challenged in terms of holding the line.”
While it’s true that Ukraine has been running short of military hardware, that’s not what is holding up progress on their part. Few expect the next shipment of American aid to suddenly turn the tide and put the Russian military back on its heels. Surprisingly, the Associated Press has a much more frank and dismal assessment of the situation this weekend. The weather is improving in Ukraine and the muddy ground is drying up, making it easier for Russia to move its tanks and armored personnel carriers. They are advancing slowly for strategic reasons and they are doing so in multiple locations along the lines. A massive push deeper into Ukraine at this point would be very costly. As one military analyst put it, Putin is seeking “a death by a thousand cuts” rather than a fatal blow.
The reality is that Ukraine’s defensive lines are not in good shape. Had they spent the fall and winter digging defensive trenches and tank traps, they would probably be better prepared to stop or at least slow the Russian advance. But they didn’t do that and dozens of sections of the current battle lines remain open. Russia is exploiting those openings, and once they move a significant force through those lines, they will basically have an open field to run through. Anyone trying to tell you otherwise is delusional or dishonest. If we still had the influence over our adversaries that we once did, we could be negotiating some sort of peace deal with the Russians, even if it means that Ukraine will have to give up some additional territory. But that’s apparently a politically unpopular position in Washington at the moment. Unfortunately, it will be the Ukrainian people who will pay the price for all of this gamesmanship.