The United States risks losing a new space race with China unless American and allied space industries are strengthened and bureaucratic logjams reduced, according to a study by Pentagon space experts made public Monday.
China is rapidly expanding its capabilities for both exploration and warfighting in space in what the White House has called the current “decisive decade” in competing with Beijing, the report by experts from the Space Force, Air Force Research Laboratory, and Defense Innovation Unit states.
Beijing “remains our most consequential strategic competitor for the coming decades and the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order, and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do so,” the report by officials from the three agencies that outlined the result of an annual conference.
The conference held in December sought to find ways to prevent China from dominating space, something that could happen if the United States loses its current lead in both government and civilian space programs.
But the report warned that “China appears to be on track to surpass the U.S. as the dominant space power by 2045, or potentially earlier, unless proactive measures are taken now to sustain our nation’s leadership.”
As the global space race heats up once again, the world by 2060 could see thriving off-Earth human communities, a vastly expanded space economy, and a balance of power favoring U.S. leadership capable of shaping a free and open system — if the current space industry is bolstered.
“To sustainably win the new space race is to determine the conditions for which future generations may inherit not just the technological achievements of our day, but the preservation of our values, a free and open society, a free market economy and the right of self-determination free from tyranny and oppression,” the report said. “[W]e must not become China to beat China; rather, we simply need to be more American to remain American.”
Current U.S. space systems and programs are becoming dominated by private-sector high-tech companies and the American lead in these areas must continue, the report said, noting that new ideas are needed to “disrupt the status quo at the speed and scale necessary to compete and win.”
A major problem for the United States is what the report calls “bureaucratic inefficiency” that is stifling space innovation and competitiveness.
Space companies recently informed Congress they are building new technologies faster than the federal bureaucracy can license systems using the know-how in satellites or rockets.
The 124-page report, “State of the Space Industrial Base 2023,” was edited by Air Force Research Laboratory expert Peter Garretson. It was written by Space Force Maj. Gen. John M. Olson, Steven J. Butow, with the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), and Andy Williams and Andrew J. Metcalf of the Air Force Research Laboratory. The DIU is a Pentagon unit working to speed up the use of civilian technology for the military.
“The report provides the go-to open-source net assessment of the relative positions of the United States vs. China in Space Race 2.0, and a very long laundry list of things the U.S. must accomplish if it intends to win,” said Mr. Garretson.
The report focused on how the current space industrial base is helping transform the U.S. military with technology investments and experimentation, fortifying the defense “ecosystem” and strengthening resilience.
In the past, the government took the lead in space research spending and the innovation it produced. Today, the commercial sector dominates both spending and innovation.
“Yet the commercial space regulatory and licensing processes remain decentralized, overly bureaucratic and slow-by-design,” the report said.
Commercial space companies are at risk of collapsing unless regulations are streamlined and processes used by the government are improved. And China is poised to seize on U.S. shortcomings.
Beijing is “ready to step in and dominate in the wake of such a collapse,” the report said.
Costs of building and launching satellites range up to millions of dollars per month. The high cost is one reason most successful commercial space companies so far have been underwritten by mega-billionaires like SpaceX’s Elon Musk and Blue Origin’s Jeff Bezos.
The new commercial space industry was born a little more than a decade ago and managed to survive the COVID-19 pandemic, banking crises and mounting inflation, the report said.
Seeking an edge
A year ago, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin took steps to bolster what he calls integrated deterrence against threats posed by China and Russia through sharpening the technological edge of the U.S. military. Mr. Austin said a key part of that effort is speeding up the military’s adoption of commercial technology.
Among the recommendations, the report called for considering the creation of a Cabinet-level Space Department or National Space Agency to accelerate strategic space programs.
“This approach is properly aligned with the national imperative of retaining U.S. leadership in commercial, civil and national security space in light of the on-going strategic competition with the PRC, Russia and other emerging space powers,” the report said, using the acronym for People’s Republic of China.
The United States also needs to collaborate on space programs with allies and partners, including some 14 allied nations currently working on military space capabilities, including many that themselves are worried by China’s space power.
Commercial space technology is already helping Ukraine’s military command and control through the use of Mr. Musk’s Starlink satellite communications. The systems are capable of withstanding Russian electronic warfare, the report said.
“The commercial sector is an essential piece to collective security — innovation is faster, sharing is broader, and capital investment is growing,” the report said. “Access to and rapid incorporation of latest technologies, and architectures are critical to building resiliency in space.”
China also is advancing the use of advanced space propulsion systems that could risk U.S. defeat in the space race.
To better compete, the United States needs to speed up work on advanced power and propulsion systems. These advanced systems will be needed for future on-orbit satellite servicing and manufacturing, dynamic space operations, in-space logistics and deep space human exploration, the report said.
Civilian companies are currently working with the U.S. government on nuclear thermal propulsion for space systems, the report said, urging streamlining current regulations in that field.
“In contrast, the PRC is rapidly advancing in its own space nuclear power program, with a ‘Megawatt-class Ultra-small Liquid Metal Cooled Space Nuclear Reactor’ recently passing a Ministry of Science and Technology comprehensive performance evaluation,” the report said.
The growing collaboration between China and Russia only highlights the need for a more effective American space effort, the report said.
China recently demonstrated the ability to maneuver close to a U.S. satellite, an action that could be used by the military to grab or crush orbiting satellites.
“Companies such as ExoAnalytic this year observed the activity and apparent strategic maneuvering of adversarial satellites, namely China’s Shijian-23,” the report said.
The United States also needs to quickly develop capabilities for what the report called “in-space servicing, assembly and manufacturing” or ISAM.
“Without bold action, the United States could be outpaced by foreign competition – in the implementation of ISAM capabilities into future space architectures. Europe, Japan, and China are all advancing their national capabilities in ISAM, which may lead to standards, interfaces and commercial services to develop around those established by the U.S.’s peers and competitors, shifting the center of gravity away from the U.S. industrial base.”