Republicans firmly believe they will retain control of the House in November, and even grow their historically slim majority because of a not-so-secret weapon: former President Donald Trump.
Their bullishness is a tonal change from last year, when the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and difficulty in basic tasks such as passing spending bills created pessimism among House Republicans about their prospects for keeping the majority.
Now, congressional Republicans say the so-called Trump effect will have a magnetic pull on voters, attracting them to support Republicans down the ballot in November. And they hope that the former president will be the key to victory in 17 GOP swing districts that President Biden won in 2020.
Putting Mr. Trump at the forefront of the House GOP’s electoral hopes is National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Rich Hudson, North Carolina Republican, who has urged candidates to “embrace” the former president.
The House GOP’s campaign arm is looking to take advantage of Mr. Biden’s lagging poll numbers in those crucial seats by targeting the stark difference between the Biden administration and Trump administration’s handling of economic and immigration policies.
“It’s why poll after poll shows voters favoring President Trump and why we are going to grow the House majority with him at the top of the ticket,” Mr. Hudson said.
But Democrats are salivating at the GOP stacking their chips behind a Trump-led ballot. They are building their congressional campaigns around turning one of Mr. Trump’s biggest self-proclaimed victories into his Achilles’ heel: the end of Roe v. Wade. At the top of the ticket, President Biden is also betting on abortion rights as a winning campaign issue.
Mr. Trump sought on Monday to limit the impact of abortion in the November election, saying the issue should be left to states to decide. He suggested that campaigning against abortion rights is not a winning issue for the GOP.
“You must follow your heart on this issue but, remember, you must also win elections to restore our culture and, in fact, save our country,” Mr. Trump said. “This is all about the will of the people.”
Democrats also see a way to at least battle Republicans on the immigration issue, after Rep. Tom Suozzi, New York Democrat, clobbered the GOP candidate in a special election to replace disgraced former lawmaker George Santos. Mr. Suozzi went on the offensive on immigration, saying there needs to be more security at the border.
Viet Shelton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said there has been chaos under a GOP majority in Congress, and that there is a “stark contrast” between the parties’ platforms that will propel Democrats to victory despite Mr. Trump atop the ticket. Under House Speaker Mike Johnson, Louisiana Republican, the GOP majority has shrunk to one vote through retirements, and Mr. Johnson has relied heavily on Democrats to pass spending bills.
“The last year-and-a-half has proven that vulnerable House Republicans are not serious about governing or addressing any of the kitchen table issues that matter to families,” Mr. Shelton said. “Instead, they tanked a bipartisan compromise to address the broken immigration system and have worked to ban abortion nationwide.”
Though Mr. Hudson has called for candidates to embrace Mr. Trump as the leader of the GOP, some Republicans fear that candidates may try to emulate the former president, which could hurt them in crucial races in swing districts.
Trump pollster Jim McLaughlin said the ex-president is a “net plus for congressional candidates,” but said candidates need to stay themselves and not play a copy-cat of Mr. Trump to win.
“You can’t out-Trump Trump,” Mr. McLaughlin said. “And look, I always tell candidates this, you know, they need to stay in character, they need to stay who they are.”
The embrace of Mr. Trump has already shown up in Congress, where lawmakers appear to base many of their policy decisions on what the former president does and doesn’t approve.
For example, the long-awaited Senate border and foreign aid package was doomed before it was revealed because the ex-president pressed his allies in Washington to shut it down. His influence even affected the House GOP’s chaotic race to replace Mr. McCarthy when he labeled then speaker-elect House Majority Whip Tom Emmer a “RINO,” or Republican in name only.
The two have since made up, and Mr. Emmer believes that a Trump-led ballot will propel Republicans to victory.
Mr. Emmer, who chaired the NRCC during the last two election cycles, said that having the former president at the top of the ticket proved a difference maker in 2020 even though Mr. Trump lost reelection.
The lawmaker said that Mr. Trump’s name attracted voters that would not normally participate. He believed that the Trump effect negated predictions that the GOP would lose over 20 seats in the House during that cycle, instead winning 15 and keeping the Democratic majority slim.
“We know how to work with President Trump to hold this majority and grow it, and that’s exactly what we’re gonna do in November,” he said.