SEOUL, South Korea — Wednesday’s National Assembly elections in Korea are not just a fight for control of the house, but also a referendum on conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol.
Adding spice, a vicious political fight is being reignited as a former foe returns to the arena to throw down with Mr. Yoon. This new third force, combined with the president’s dire approval ratings, may spell grim news for his machine, the People Power Party, or PPP.
It is already a minority in the unicameral, 300-seat National Assembly, occupying 114 seats while the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, or DPK, holds 156. Analysts expect the PPP’s seats to be further reduced, for the next four years, after April 10.
While that day’s vote is for lawmakers, not policymakers, results will be closely watched in Beijing and Pyongyang, as well as Tokyo and Washington.
Mr. Yoon dismayed the former capitals and delighted the latter by reaching out to Tokyo – a bete noire for most Koreans due to its 1910-1945 colonial rule over the peninsula. Mr. Yoon’s bold and unusual policy enabled long-held hopes in Washington for tightened trilateral strategic cooperation in Northeast Asia.
Regardless of the new Assembly’s composition, Mr. Yoon, whose single, five-year term commenced in May 2022, retains control over foreign, defense and North Korean policies via relevant ministries.
On paper, at least. In reality, he could face weightier shackles on his freedom of action, given that the Assembly controls appropriations. Opposition lawmakers could also nix potential legislation aimed at formalizing the still-fragile partnership with Japan, while U.S. policymakers will have to consider the DPK.
‘Judgment day’ looms for Yoon
Wednesday is “‘judgment day’ for the incumbent,” Heo Jin-jae, research director at pollster Gallup Korea, told foreign reporters in Seoul last week.
A report on the upcoming election by D&A Advisory, a U.S.-based Korean risk advisory firm, concurs. The PPP faces lost seats due to “…the majority of the population’s dissatisfaction with the Yoon administration, rather than support of the opposition’s policies,” it said.
The report, authored by a team led by ex-intelligence analyst Stephen Kinker, continued; “Policies have become less important in voters’ minds for this election, and the opposition has been framing this event as an opportunity to put Yoon’s administration on trial.”
The president has suffered perennially low approval ratings. Gallup data shows his “favorable” ratings only exceeded 50 percent in the first month of his presidency. Since then, they have been in the 26-37 percent range; the latest numbers are 34 percent.
Despite this, the PPP has been polling very slightly higher than the opposition DPK: 36 percent approval ratings versus 31 percent, in March, respectively.
The DPK has been weakened by high-profile defections of figures dissatisfied with party head Lee Jae-myung. Mr. Lee, a leftist firebrand, who inspires strong passions both for and against.
A new face re-emerged a month prior to the election. On March 3, Cho Kuk, a foe from Mr. Yoon’s past, rose from his political grave with a new machine, the Rebuild Korea Party, or RKP.
“A lot of those who supported the PPP saw [the political landscape] as a dichotomy between Hong Dong-hoon and Lee Jae-myung,” said Mr. Heo, referring to the two big party heads. “This advent of Cho Kuk and the RKP has really changed the game.”
Neither Mr. Yoon nor Mr. Lee were especially popular in the 2022 presidential elections, but voters had no real choice beyond the major parties. They do now.
Mr. Cho and Mr. Yoon have a history. In 2019 Mr. Cho was appointed Justice Minster by then-President Moon Jae-in, who sought to reform the state prosecution.
The appointment sparked a battle between Mr. Cho and then-chief prosecutor, Mr. Yoon, who gained stratospheric visibility by defeating Mr. Cho, who exited his position in disgrace, amid allegations of family corruption.
Mr. Yoon was immediately courted by the right wing, entered politics with the PPP, and won the 2022 presidential election – albeit with a victory margin of less than 1 percent.
Mr. Cho – a suave, former academic with a gift for public communication – may represent a less extreme, more middle-class leftism than the DPK’s old-school boss, Mr. Lee.
In past elections, no “third force” has challenged the two main parties’ control. However, they have won 21.4 percent, 15.1 percent, 19.2 percent and 16.5 percent of the votes, Gallup numbers showed.
That is important. Many Koreans vote predictably along regional, age and gender lines to the point where Mr. Heo broadly reckons the electorate is split between 40% conservatives and 40% liberals. However, 20% are moderate floating voters – and Mr. Cho may win them over.
“The RKP has attracted a significant portion of undecided voters, as well as disenchanted [DPK] supporters, who have pledged to vote for [DPK] candidates in their constituencies and the RKP in the proportional representation race,” D&A Advisory wrote.
Even if the RKP draws votes from the DPK, Mr. Cho has said he will vote with the DPK against the PPP in the Assembly.
Why it matters for Japan, North Korea and the U.S.
Mr. Yoon has concentrated his presidential energies on foreign policy. Despite early gaffes such as a hot mic incident, he has earned kudos abroad.
He has won Washington’s approval with his unprecedented courtship of Japan. He won further Western friends by talking up freedom and democracy and siding with the Philippines and Taiwan in their disputes with China.
This is unusual.
“In Korea, right-left and conservative-liberal, mean something different than they do in the U.S. context,” said Mike Breen, author of “The New Koreans.” “Yoon has come out and said, ‘We are very democratic and stand side-by-side with other democracies.’ In the Korean context that is quite radical.”
Leftist Mr. Lee is arguably more conservative than rightist Mr. Yoon, Mr. Breen opined: While the former’s policies are rooted in old-school nationalism, the latter’s are based on ideals.
That applies to stances towards both Tokyo and Pyongyang. The prior Moon government degraded relations with Tokyo, engaged Pyongyang and sought a Korean War peace treaty.
Mr. Yoon has reached out to Tokyo and adopted a hard line against its ethnic brethren north of the DMZ with a muscular defense posture, tough rhetoric and zero interest in a peace treaty.
Coffee shop gossip has it that Mr. Yoon has concentrated on foreign affairs due to domestic weaknesses. His image has suffered from perceived stubbornness, bad appointments, poor communication, and an unpopular wife.
Electoral issues are predictably local. “The economy is stagnant and people are struggling with livelihoods,” said Mr. Heo. “It’s a gloomy situation.”
The Kimdom barely registers.
“We are quite used to the threat,” Mr. Heo said. “Even if North Korea fired a missile tomorrow, we are relatively numb to these provocations.”
If his PPP loses badly, Mr. Yoon could become a “lame duck” – Korean has adopted the English expression for late-term presidents – even in foreign policy.
Choi Jong-kun, a deputy foreign minister under the Moon administration, said that regardless of presidential ministerial control, foreign policy is subject to Assembly oversight.
“We have a presidential system, but at the same time, a semi-parliamentary system as each minister or vice minister is required to be present at parliamentary sessions, and each standing committee is accountable to answering questions, and has to deal with the opposition,” he said.
During his tenure as vice minister, he spent 60 percent of his time dealing with Assembly matters, he estimated.
A newly empowered, opposition-controlled Assembly could enact “budget constraints on foreign policy,” question aid to Ukraine – including South Korean ammunition sent via Washington – and demand a defense spending review, he suggested.
Moreover, further moves to strengthen Japan relations – such as legislative initiatives to end a protracted dispute over wartime forced-labor compensation – would be stone-walled, he said.
The DPK’s Mr. Lee has made clear his disinterest in assisting Ukraine, speaking out against China or upgrading Japan ties.
Mr. Yoon’s excellent relationships with Washington could also become compromised.
“You will have a different landscape of public diplomacy from Washington’s perspective,” Mr. Choi said. “I think the DPK will receive more policy attention from Washington than before.”
Mr. Yoon could become personally vulnerable.
“All that is needed is for something to go wrong, and the opposition could easily find serious calls in the Assembly for impeachment,” said Mr. Breen.