Voters in several battleground states are showing a desire to elect Democratic Senate candidates but are less willing to give President Biden a second term, according to recent polling.
The split-ticket results are a warning for the president’s reelection campaign but better news for Senate Democrats who are not getting dragged down by Mr. Biden.
Polling in recent weeks from Emerson College/The Hill in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania shows presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump with an edge over Mr. Biden ranging from 1 to 4 points. But in the same states, the leading Democratic candidates for the Senate are beating their Republican opponents by 2 to 4 points.
In some states, more Trump voters say they’re willing to split the ticket and vote blue for the Senate vs. Biden supporters voting for a Republican.
Senate Democrats currently hold a one-seat majority.
In Arizona, voters prefer Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden by 48% to 44%. For the Senate, they side with Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego to Republican Kari Lake by 44% to 40%.
With independent Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who caucuses with Democrats but is not seeking reelection, off the ballot, independent voters break for Gallego, 42% to 38%, according to Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball.
In Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump is at 44% to Mr. Biden’s 40% when third-party candidates were included. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads Republican opponent David McCormick 45% to 41%. Roughly 9% of Trump voters said they’d split their ticket to support Mr. Casey compared to 3% of Biden voters who would vote for Mr. McCormick.
In Nevada, Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden 41% to 36% when third-party candidates are included. Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen had 41% to Republican Sam Brown’s 39%.
In Michigan, Mr. Trump had 43% and Mr. Biden 41% when third-party candidates were included. For the Senate, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers 41% to 39%.
In Ohio, Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden 47% to 38% when third-party candidates were included. Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown led Republican Bernie Moreno 39% to 34%. The results were conducted before Mr. Moreno officially clinched the GOP nomination. About 8% of Trump voters backed Mr. Brown, compared to about 2% of Biden voters who supported a Republican Senate candidate.
In Wisconsin, Mr. Trump led 43% to Mr. Biden’s 41% when third-party candidates were included. Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin had 45% vs. Republican Eric Hovde’s 42%.
All of the margin of errors were plus or minus 3 percentage points, except for Ohio, which was plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
Some Republican Senate campaigns said the results were promising because it showed their lesser-known candidates were already within striking distance of their Democratic opponents and were mostly within the margins of error.
The Hovde campaign, for example, noted they were within the margin despite his candidacy at the time being just three weeks old. Mr. Hovde gained 4 points over Ms. Baldwin from an earlier survey.
“[Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer] and the Democrats are seeing the same thing,” said campaign spokesperson Ben Voelkel. “Hovde was the first Republican challenger to draw national Democratic attacks on the air, and they’ve already spent more than $2 million attacking him.”