A new poll suggests that Republican Bruce Blakeman’s uphill campaign to unseat Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul may have climbed to within striking distance.
One caution: The poll that shows Blakeman, a Nassau County executive, only four percentage points behind Hochul was conducted by a pro-Blakeman super PAC, according to the New York Post.
The Red Oak Strategic poll found Hochul with 47 percent support and Blakeman at 43 percent, while 10 percent of those surveyed were undecided.
The poll of 2,000 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
This 4-point poll is a MUCH bigger deal than people realize.
Bookmark this name: Bruce Blakeman.
He could be the key to fixing New York, reining in Mamdani madness, AND helping keep the U.S. House in Republican hands by driving GOP turnout across New York’s battleground… https://t.co/gzZXVzVF7t
— Erin Molan (@Erin_Molan) July 29, 2026
The good news in the poll is that it says 73 percent of Republicans are much more interested in this contest than in previous ones, while only 44 percent of Democrats feel that way. Given that Republican Lee Zeldin lost to Hochul in 2022 by a narrow margin, that’s a positive sign.
Will Kathy Hochul win in November?
The bad news? Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2 to 1 statewide, and about a quarter of the state’s voters are independents.
However, the poll offered some hope for Republicans, who are politically irrelevant in the Democrat-dominated state Legislature and who last saw a GOP governor 20 years ago when George Pataki held office.
The poll said only 38 percent of respondents had a favorable view of Hochul, while 58 percent were unfavorable.
The survey found 33 percent said Hochul, who assumed office after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo fled Albany in 2021 amid sexual misconduct accusations, deserves another term, while 61 percent said she did not.
🚨UNBELIEVABLE: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is now begging rich people who moved to Florida and Texas because of the high taxes in NY to move back and pay higher taxes to fund socialist programs.
“I need people who are high net worth to support the generous social programs that… pic.twitter.com/uRo2ifca6n
— David J Harris Jr (@DavidJHarrisJr) July 27, 2026
“The environment favors a challenger: just 33% say New York is headed in the right direction vs. 57% wrong track,” Red Oak Strategic said in a July 21 polling memo.
The poll noted Blakeman’s biggest drawback — 47 percent had never heard of him or did not know enough to form an opinion.
The poll memo noted that “Blakeman already leads independents 54%–33%, holds Republicans 83–10, and runs strongest in the suburbs (51%).”
Gov. Hochul expected to send rebate checks to New Yorkers shortly before Election Day https://t.co/GgXgCgIffp
— Gothamist (@Gothamist) July 29, 2026
The survey runs counter to one from Siena College in late June that showed Hochul leading Blakeman 52 percent to 32 percent.
However, a conservative-leaning group called “Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers” produced a poll in early July saying Hochul’s lead was down to six points, 47 percent to 41 percent.
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